IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/mulfin/v64y2022ics1042444x22000019.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Liquidity Shocks, Price Volatilities, and Risk-managed Strategy: Evidence from Bitcoin and Beyond

Author

Listed:
  • Tang, Tao
  • Wang, Yanchen

Abstract

This study examines the prediction power of market liquidity (the ease with which asset are traded) and funding liquidity (the ease with which traders can obtain funding) on the price volatilities of Bitcoin. We find that both market and funding liquidity shocks forecast future volatility. More importantly, liquidity shocks have a stronger and persistent effect on the long-term trend component of volatility. Exploiting the predictability of liquidity shocks, we propose a risk-managed strategy to manage extremely high volatility and avoid occasional large crashes in cryptocurrency markets. This novel strategy virtually eliminates crashes and improves the Sharpe ratio substantially against the benchmark buy-and-hold strategy. The outperformance is much stronger during the turbulent periods of cryptocurrencies. Hence, this paper provides important insights into cryptocurrency investment and portfolio management combining traditional assets and cryptocurrencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Tang, Tao & Wang, Yanchen, 2022. "Liquidity Shocks, Price Volatilities, and Risk-managed Strategy: Evidence from Bitcoin and Beyond," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:64:y:2022:i:c:s1042444x22000019
    DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2022.100729
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042444X22000019
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.mulfin.2022.100729?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fang, Libing & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Does global economic uncertainty matter for the volatility and hedging effectiveness of Bitcoin?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 29-36.
    2. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Vigne, Samuel A., 2018. "Does economic policy uncertainty predict the Bitcoin returns? An empirical investigation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 145-149.
    3. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    4. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    5. KiHoon Hong, 2017. "Bitcoin as an alternative investment vehicle," Information Technology and Management, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 265-275, December.
    6. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    7. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    9. P. S. Lintilhac & A. Tourin, 2017. "Model-based pairs trading in the bitcoin markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 703-716, May.
    10. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    11. Gupta, Anurag & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2000. "An empirical examination of the convexity bias in the pricing of interest rate swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 239-279, February.
    12. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    13. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    14. C. Alexander & M. Dakos, 2020. "A critical investigation of cryptocurrency data and analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 173-188, February.
    15. Brauneis, Alexander & Mestel, Roland & Riordan, Ryan & Theissen, Erik, 2021. "How to measure the liquidity of cryptocurrency markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    16. Klein, Tony & Pham Thu, Hien & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Bitcoin is not the New Gold – A comparison of volatility, correlation, and portfolio performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 105-116.
    17. Enoksen, F.A. & Landsnes, Ch.J. & Lučivjanská, K. & Molnár, P., 2020. "Understanding risk of bubbles in cryptocurrencies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 129-144.
    18. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Moore, Tyler & Oberman, Tali, 2018. "Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 86-96.
    19. Harris, Richard D.F. & Stoja, Evarist & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2011. "A cyclical model of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3055-3064, November.
    20. Borgards, Oliver & Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "The prevalence of price overreactions in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    21. Conghui Hu & Zhibing Li & Xiaoyu Liu, 2020. "Liquidity shocks, commodity financialization, and market comovements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1315-1336, September.
    22. Li, Suxiao & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert, 2018. "Surges of international fund flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 97-119.
    23. Turan G. Bali & Lin Peng & Yannan Shen & Yi Tang, 2014. "Liquidity Shocks and Stock Market Reactions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1434-1485.
    24. Wei, Wang Chun, 2018. "Liquidity and market efficiency in cryptocurrencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 21-24.
    25. Borri, Nicola, 2019. "Conditional tail-risk in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-19.
    26. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Can volume predict Bitcoin returns and volatility? A quantiles-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 74-81.
    27. Chung, Kee H. & Chuwonganant, Chairat, 2018. "Market volatility and stock returns: The role of liquidity providers," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 17-34.
    28. Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2019. "Volatility co-movement between Bitcoin and Ether," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 221-227.
    29. Mokni, Khaled & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Bouri, Elie & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Bitcoin-US stock nexus," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.
    30. Lee, Adrian D. & Li, Mengling & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2020. "Bitcoin: Speculative asset or innovative technology?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    31. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    32. Barroso, Pedro & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2015. "Momentum has its moments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 111-120.
    33. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Liquidity and Risk Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 193-197, May.
    34. Chemkha, Rahma & BenSaïda, Ahmed & Ghorbel, Ahmed, 2021. "Connectedness between cryptocurrencies and foreign exchange markets: Implication for risk management," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    35. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2018. "Liquidity uncertainty and Bitcoin’s market microstructure," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 97-101.
    36. Nneji, Ogonna, 2015. "Liquidity shocks and stock bubbles," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 132-146.
    37. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    2. Smales, L.A., 2022. "Investor attention in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    4. Constandina Koki & Stefanos Leonardos & Georgios Piliouras, 2019. "A Peek into the Unobservable: Hidden States and Bayesian Inference for the Bitcoin and Ether Price Series," Papers 1909.10957, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    5. Chu, Jeffrey & Chan, Stephen & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2021. "Bitcoin versus high-performance technology stocks in diversifying against global stock market indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    6. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "The Nexus of Sophisticated Digital Assets with Economic Policy Uncertainty: A Survey of Empirical Findings and an Empirical Investigation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-25, May.
    7. Jareño, Francisco & González, María de la O & Tolentino, Marta & Sierra, Karen, 2020. "Bitcoin and gold price returns: A quantile regression and NARDL analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Exploring the Driving Forces of the Bitcoin Exchange Rate Dynamics: An EGARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 89445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Umar, Muhammad & Su, Chi-Wei & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Shao, Xue-Feng, 2021. "Bitcoin: A safe haven asset and a winner amid political and economic uncertainties in the US?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    10. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2022. "When bitcoin lost its position: Cryptocurrency uncertainty and the dynamic spillover among cryptocurrencies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 182-199.
    12. Scharnowski, Stefan, 2021. "Understanding Bitcoin liquidity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    13. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & McGee, Richard J., 2020. "Are cryptocurrencies a safe haven for equity markets? An international perspective from the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Ozdamar, Melisa & Sensoy, Ahmet & Akdeniz, Levent, 2022. "Retail vs institutional investor attention in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Andrea Flori, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies In Finance: Review And Applications," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(05), pages 1-22, August.
    16. Ghabri, Yosra & Guesmi, Khaled & Zantour, Ahlem, 2021. "Bitcoin and liquidity risk diversification," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    17. Lei Wang & Provash Kumer Sarker & Elie Bouri, 2023. "Short- and Long-Term Interactions Between Bitcoin and Economic Variables: Evidence from the US," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1305-1330, April.
    18. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    19. Jiang, Yonghong & Wu, Lanxin & Tian, Gengyu & Nie, He, 2021. "Do cryptocurrencies hedge against EPU and the equity market volatility during COVID-19? – New evidence from quantile coherency analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    20. Costantini, Mauro & Maaitah, Ahmad & Mishra, Tapas & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2023. "Bitcoin market networks and cyberattacks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity shocks; Price volatilities; Risk-managed trading strategy; Cryptocurrencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:64:y:2022:i:c:s1042444x22000019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/mulfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.