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Deep learning for solving dynamic economic models

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  • Maliar, Lilia
  • Maliar, Serguei
  • Winant, Pablo

Abstract

We introduce a unified deep learning method that solves dynamic economic models by casting them into nonlinear regression equations. We derive such equations for three fundamental objects of economic dynamics – lifetime reward functions, Bellman equations and Euler equations. We estimate the decision functions on simulated data using a stochastic gradient descent method. We introduce an all-in-one integration operator that facilitates approximation of high-dimensional integrals. We use neural networks to perform model reduction and to handle multicollinearity. Our deep learning method is tractable in large-scale problems, e.g., Krusell and Smith (1998). We provide a TensorFlow code that accommodates a variety of applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei & Winant, Pablo, 2021. "Deep learning for solving dynamic economic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 76-101.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:122:y:2021:i:c:p:76-101
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.07.004
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    Cited by:

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    2. Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo, 2023. "gingado: a machine learning library focused on economics and finance," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data science in central banking: applications and tools, volume 59, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Joël Marbet & Galo Nuño & Omar Rachedi, 2023. "Inequality and the Zero Lower Bound," CESifo Working Paper Series 10471, CESifo.
    4. Tahvonen, Olli & Suominen, Antti & Malo, Pekka & Viitasaari, Lauri & Parkatti, Vesa-Pekka, 2022. "Optimizing high-dimensional stochastic forestry via reinforcement learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Aryan Eftekhari & Simon Scheidegger, 2022. "High-Dimensional Dynamic Stochastic Model Representation," Papers 2202.06555, arXiv.org.
    6. Emmet Hall-Hoffarth, 2023. "Non-linear approximations of DSGE models with neural-networks and hard-constraints," Papers 2310.13436, arXiv.org.
    7. Victor Duarte & Diogo Duarte & Dejanir H. Silva, 2024. "Machine Learning for Continuous-Time Finance," CESifo Working Paper Series 10909, CESifo.
    8. Alexeeva, Tatyana & Diep, Quoc Bao & Kuznetsov, Nikolay & Zelinka, Ivan, 2023. "Forecasting and stabilizing chaotic regimes in two macroeconomic models via artificial intelligence technologies and control methods," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    9. Marlon Azinovic & Jan v{Z}emliv{c}ka, 2023. "Economics-Inspired Neural Networks with Stabilizing Homotopies," Papers 2303.14802, arXiv.org.
    10. Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2022. "Deep learning classification: Modeling discrete labor choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. Jiequn Han & Yucheng Yang & Weinan E, 2021. "DeepHAM: A Global Solution Method for Heterogeneous Agent Models with Aggregate Shocks," Papers 2112.14377, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    12. Marlon Azinovic & Luca Gaegauf & Simon Scheidegger, 2022. "Deep Equilibrium Nets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1471-1525, November.
    13. Skavysh, Vladimir & Priazhkina, Sofia & Guala, Diego & Bromley, Thomas R., 2023. "Quantum monte carlo for economics: Stress testing and macroeconomic deep learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    14. Elisei Leonov, 2023. "Neural Network-Based Numerical Analysis of the Impact of Pandemic Shocks in Three-Sector DSGE Model," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(4), pages 80-107, December.
    15. Thomas J. Sargent & John Stachurski, 2024. "Dynamic Programming: Finite States," Papers 2401.10473, arXiv.org.
    16. Vladimir Skavysh & Sofia Priazhkina & Diego Guala & Thomas Bromley, 2022. "Quantum Monte Carlo for Economics: Stress Testing and Macroeconomic Deep Learning," Staff Working Papers 22-29, Bank of Canada.
    17. Ajit Desai, 2023. "Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how," Staff Analytical Notes 2023-16, Bank of Canada.
    18. Kshama Dwarakanath & Svitlana Vyetrenko & Peyman Tavallali & Tucker Balch, 2024. "ABIDES-Economist: Agent-Based Simulation of Economic Systems with Learning Agents," Papers 2402.09563, arXiv.org.
    19. Benjamin Fan & Edward Qiao & Anran Jiao & Zhouzhou Gu & Wenhao Li & Lu Lu, 2023. "Deep Learning for Solving and Estimating Dynamic Macro-Finance Models," Papers 2305.09783, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial intelligence; Machine learning; Deep learning; Neural network; Stochastic gradient; Dynamic models; Model reduction; Dynamic programming; Bellman equation; Euler equation; Value functio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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