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History remembered: Optimal sovereign default on domestic and external debt

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  • D’Erasmo, Pablo
  • Mendoza, Enrique G.

Abstract

Infrequent but turbulent sovereign defaults on domestic creditors were a “forgotten history” in macroeconomics. We propose a Bewley model in which the government chooses debt and default on domestic and foreign creditors by balancing distributional incentives versus the benefits of debt for self-insurance, liquidity, and risk-sharing. A feedback mechanism links debt issuance, the debt distribution, the default decision, and risk premia. Calibrated to Eurozone data, the model is consistent with key long-run and debt-crisis statistics. Defaults are rare and preceded by surging debt and spreads. Debt sells at the risk-free price most often but lack of commitment cuts sustainable debt sharply.

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  • D’Erasmo, Pablo & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2021. "History remembered: Optimal sovereign default on domestic and external debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 969-989.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:117:y:2021:i:c:p:969-989
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.07.006
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    Cited by:

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    2. Antonio Cusato Novelli, 2021. "Sovereign default, political instability and political fragmentation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 732-755, September.
    3. Alexandre, Michel & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Michalak, Krzysztof & Rodrigues, Francisco Aparecido, 2023. "Does the default pecking order impact systemic risk? Evidence from Brazilian data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(3), pages 1379-1391.
    4. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2023. "Sovereign Defaults and Public Investment (Capital)," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1123, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    5. Dachraoui, Hajer & Smida, Mounir & Sebri, Maamar, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 15-33.
    6. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2023. "Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings: Public Capital and Fiscal Constraint Tightness," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0323, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    8. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi & Pietro Bomprezzi, 2021. "Is to Forgive to Forget? Sovereign Risk in the Aftermath of a Default," Development Working Papers 475, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    9. Minjie Deng, 2021. "Inequality, Taxation, and Sovereign Default Risk," Discussion Papers dp21-15, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    10. Bernardo Guimaraes & Lucas Tumkus, 2020. "On the costs of sovereign default in quantitative models," Discussion Papers 2021, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    11. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2020. "Optimal Taxation with Endogenous Default under Incomplete Markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 1297, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Roettger, Joost, 2019. "Discretionary monetary and fiscal policy with endogenous sovereign risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 44-66.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; Sovereign default; Debt crisis; European crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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