IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juipol/v57y2019icp33-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying optimal technological portfolios for European power generation towards climate change mitigation: A robust portfolio analysis approach

Author

Listed:
  • Forouli, Aikaterini
  • Doukas, Haris
  • Nikas, Alexandros
  • Sampedro, Jon
  • Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan

Abstract

Here, an integrative approach is proposed to link integrated assessment modelling results from the GCAM model with a novel portfolio analysis framework. This framework comprises a bi-objective optimisation model, Monte Carlo analysis and the Iterative Trichotomic Approach, aimed at carrying out stochastic uncertainty assessment and enhancing robustness. The approach is applied for identifying optimal technological portfolios for power generation in the EU towards climate change mitigation until 2050. The considered technologies include photovoltaics, concentrated solar power, wind, nuclear, biomass and carbon capture and storage, for which different subsidy curves for emissions reduction and energy security are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Forouli, Aikaterini & Doukas, Haris & Nikas, Alexandros & Sampedro, Jon & Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan, 2019. "Identifying optimal technological portfolios for European power generation towards climate change mitigation: A robust portfolio analysis approach," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 33-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:57:y:2019:i:c:p:33-42
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2019.01.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178719300013
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jup.2019.01.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hombach, Laura Elisabeth & Walther, Grit, 2015. "Pareto-efficient legal regulation of the (bio)fuel market using a bi-objective optimization model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(1), pages 286-295.
    2. Awerbuch, Shimon & Yang, Spencer, 2007. "Efficient electricity generating portfolios for Europe: maximising energy security and climate change mitigation," EIB Papers 7/2007, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    3. Pérez Odeh, Rodrigo & Watts, David & Negrete-Pincetic, Matías, 2018. "Portfolio applications in electricity markets review: Private investor and manager perspective trends," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 192-204.
    4. Monfreda, Chad & Ramankutty, Navin & Hertel, Thomas, 2008. "Global Agricultural Land Use Data for Climate Change Analysis," GTAP Working Papers 2601, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    5. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Ueckerdt, Falko & Carrara, Samuel & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & Després, Jacques & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Johnson, Nils & Kitous, Alban & Scholz, Yvonne & Sullivan, Patrick & Ludere, 2017. "System integration of wind and solar power in integrated assessment models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 583-599.
    6. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J., 1997. "Modern portfolio theory, 1950 to date," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1743-1759, December.
    7. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    8. Mavrotas, George & Florios, Kostas, 2013. "An improved version of the augmented epsilon-constraint method (AUGMECON2) for finding the exact Pareto set in Multi-Objective Integer Programming problems," MPRA Paper 105034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Panos Xidonas & Haris Doukas & George Mavrotas & Olena Pechak, 2016. "Environmental corporate responsibility for investments evaluation: an alternative multi-objective programming model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 247(2), pages 395-413, December.
    10. Haris Doukas & Alexandros Nikas & Mikel González-Eguino & Iñaki Arto & Annela Anger-Kraavi, 2018. "From Integrated to Integrative: Delivering on the Paris Agreement," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-10, July.
    11. Muratori, Matteo & Ledna, Catherine & McJeon, Haewon & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit & Kim, Son H. & Wise, Marshall & Kheshgi, Haroon S. & Clarke, Leon E. & Edmonds, Jae, 2017. "Cost of power or power of cost: A U.S. modeling perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 861-874.
    12. Mazidi, Mohammadreza & Monsef, Hassan & Siano, Pierluigi, 2016. "Design of a risk-averse decision making tool for smart distribution network operators under severe uncertainties: An IGDT-inspired augment ε-constraint based multi-objective approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 214-235.
    13. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Soares, Isabel, 2017. "Energy planning and modern portfolio theory: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 636-651.
    14. Panos Xidonas & Christis Hassapis & George Mavrotas & Christos Staikouras & Constantin Zopounidis, 2018. "Multiobjective portfolio optimization: bridging mathematical theory with asset management practice," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 267(1), pages 585-606, August.
    15. Baker, Erin & Solak, Senay, 2011. "Climate change and optimal energy technology R&D policy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 442-454, September.
    16. Urban, F. & Benders, R.M.J. & Moll, H.C., 2007. "Modelling energy systems for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3473-3482, June.
    17. John Weyant, 2017. "Some Contributions of Integrated Assessment Models of Global Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 115-137.
    18. Monfreda, Chad & Ramankutty, Navin & Hertel, Thomas, 2008. "Global Agricultural Land Use Data for Climate Change Analysis," GTAP Working Papers 2601, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    19. Scott, Michael J. & Sands, Ronald D. & Edmonds, Jae & Liebetrau, Albert M. & Engel, David W., 1999. "Uncertainty in integrated assessment models: modeling with MiniCAM 1.0," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(14), pages 855-879, December.
    20. Haewon McJeon & Jae Edmonds & Nico Bauer & Leon Clarke & Brian Fisher & Brian P. Flannery & Jérôme Hilaire & Volker Krey & Giacomo Marangoni & Raymond Mi & Keywan Riahi & Holger Rogner & Massimo Tavon, 2014. "Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas," Nature, Nature, vol. 514(7523), pages 482-485, October.
    21. Valentine, Scott Victor, 2011. "Emerging symbiosis: Renewable energy and energy security," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4572-4578.
    22. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber, 1997. "Modern Portfolio Theory, 1950 to Date," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 97-3, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    23. Pugh, Graham & Clarke, Leon & Marlay, Robert & Kyle, Page & Wise, Marshall & McJeon, Haewon & Chan, Gabriel, 2011. "Energy R&D portfolio analysis based on climate change mitigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 634-643, July.
    24. Delarue, Erik & De Jonghe, Cedric & Belmans, Ronnie & D'haeseleer, William, 2011. "Applying portfolio theory to the electricity sector: Energy versus power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 12-23, January.
    25. Forouli, Aikaterini & Gkonis, Nikolaos & Nikas, Alexandros & Siskos, Eleftherios & Doukas, Haris & Tourkolias, Christos, 2019. "Energy efficiency promotion in Greece in light of risk: Evaluating policies as portfolio assets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 818-831.
    26. Jano-Ito, Marco A. & Crawford-Brown, Douglas, 2017. "Investment decisions considering economic, environmental and social factors: An actors' perspective for the electricity sector of Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 92-106.
    27. Volker Krey, 2014. "Global energy-climate scenarios and models: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 363-383, July.
    28. Doukas, Haris, 2013. "Modelling of linguistic variables in multicriteria energy policy support," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(2), pages 227-238.
    29. Hickey, Emily A. & Lon Carlson, J. & Loomis, David, 2010. "Issues in the determination of the optimal portfolio of electricity supply options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2198-2207, May.
    30. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Koasidis, Konstantinos & Nikas, Alexandros & Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan & Xexakis, Georgios & Forouli, Aikaterini & Mittal, Shivika & Gambhir, Ajay & Koutsellis, Themistoklis & Doukas, Haris, 2022. "Towards a green recovery in the EU: Aligning further emissions reductions with short- and long-term energy-sector employment gains," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    2. Nikas, A. & Gambhir, A. & Trutnevyte, E. & Koasidis, K. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Mayer, D. & Zachmann, G. & Miguel, L.J. & Ferreras-Alonso, N. & Sognnaes, I. & Peters, G.P. & Colombo, E. & Howe, 2021. "Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    3. Apostolos Arsenopoulos & Vangelis Marinakis & Konstantinos Koasidis & Andriana Stavrakaki & John Psarras, 2020. "Assessing Resilience to Energy Poverty in Europe through a Multi-Criteria Analysis Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, Chi-Keung, 2022. "Wholesale electricity market economics of solar generation in Israel," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paulino Martinez-Fernandez & Fernando deLlano-Paz & Anxo Calvo-Silvosa & Isabel Soares, 2019. "Assessing Renewable Energy Sources for Electricity (RES-E) Potential Using a CAPM-Analogous Multi-Stage Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Zhang, Shuang & Zhao, Tao & Xie, Bai-Chen, 2018. "What is the optimal power generation mix of China? An empirical analysis using portfolio theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 522-536.
    3. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Soares, Isabel, 2017. "Energy planning and modern portfolio theory: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 636-651.
    4. Paulino Martinez-Fernandez & Fernando deLlano-Paz & Anxo Calvo-Silvosa & Isabel Soares, 2018. "Pollutant versus non-pollutant generation technologies: a CML-analogous analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 199-212, December.
    5. Haris Doukas & Alexandros Nikas & Mikel González-Eguino & Iñaki Arto & Annela Anger-Kraavi, 2018. "From Integrated to Integrative: Delivering on the Paris Agreement," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-10, July.
    6. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Iglesias Antelo, Susana & Soares, Isabel, 2015. "The European low-carbon mix for 2030: The role of renewable energy sources in an environmentally and socially efficient approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 49-61.
    7. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Martínez Fernandez, Paulino & Soares, Isabel, 2016. "Addressing 2030 EU policy framework for energy and climate: Cost, risk and energy security issues," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1347-1360.
    8. de Oliveira, Francisco Alexandre & de Paiva, Anderson Paulo & Lima, José Wanderley Marangon & Balestrassi, Pedro Paulo & Mendes, Ronã Rinston Amaury, 2011. "Portfolio optimization using Mixture Design of Experiments: Scheduling trades within electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 24-32, January.
    9. Ajay Gambhir & Isabela Butnar & Pei-Hao Li & Pete Smith & Neil Strachan, 2019. "A Review of Criticisms of Integrated Assessment Models and Proposed Approaches to Address These, through the Lens of BECCS," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-21, May.
    10. Gkonis, Nikolaos & Arsenopoulos, Apostolos & Stamatiou, Athina & Doukas, Haris, 2020. "Multi-perspective design of energy efficiency policies under the framework of national energy and climate action plans," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    11. Forouli, Aikaterini & Gkonis, Nikolaos & Nikas, Alexandros & Siskos, Eleftherios & Doukas, Haris & Tourkolias, Christos, 2019. "Energy efficiency promotion in Greece in light of risk: Evaluating policies as portfolio assets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 818-831.
    12. Kim, Yeong Jae & Cho, Seong-Hoon & Sharma, Bijay P., 2021. "Constructing efficient portfolios of low-carbon technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    13. Fujimori, S. & Kainuma, M. & Masui, T. & Hasegawa, T. & Dai, H., 2014. "The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 379-391.
    14. Kashanian, Motahareh & Pishvaee, Mir Saman & Sahebi, Hadi, 2020. "Sustainable biomass portfolio sourcing plan using multi-stage stochastic programming," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    15. Mort Webster & Karen Fisher-Vanden & David Popp & Nidhi Santen, 2017. "Should We Give Up after Solyndra? Optimal Technology R&D Portfolios under Uncertainty," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(S1), pages 123-151.
    16. Roberto Roson & Richard Damania, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity: an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," IEFE Working Papers 84, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    17. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    18. Diaz Anadon, Laura & Bosetti, Valentina & Chan, Gabriel & Nemet, Gregory & Verdolini, Elena, 2014. "Energy Technology Expert Elicitations for Policy: Workshops, Modeling, and Meta-analysis," Working Paper Series rwp14-054, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    19. Adam Karp & Gary Van Vuuren, 2019. "Investment Implications Of The Fractal Market Hypothesis," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(01), pages 1-27, March.
    20. Michetti, Melania & Parrado, Ramiro, 2012. "Improving Land-use modelling within CGE to assess Forest-based Mitigation Potential and Costs," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 122862, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:57:y:2019:i:c:p:33-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/utilities-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.