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Macroeconomic Effects of CO2 Emission Limits: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for China

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  • Zhang, Zhong Xiang

Abstract

The paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of limiting China's CO2 emissions by using a time-recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy. The baseline scenario for the Chinese economy over the period to 2010 is first developed under a set of assumptions about the exogenous variables. Next, we analyze the macroeconomic implications of two less restrictive scenarios under which China's CO2 emissions in 2010 will be cut by 20% and 30% respectively relative to the baseline, assuming that carbon tax revenues are retained by the government. Then, we compute the efficiency improvement of four indirect tax offset scenarios relative to the two tax retention scenarios above. Furthermore, a comparison with other studies for China, which include the well-known global studies based on GLOBAL 2100 and GREEN, is made in terms of both the baseline scenarios and carbon constraint ones. The paper ends with some concluding remarks.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 20 (1998)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 213-250

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:20:y:1998:i:2:p:213-250

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

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Cited by:
  1. Gerhard Glomm & Daiji Kawaguchi & Facundo Sepulveda, 2006. "Green Taxes and Double Dividends in a Dynamic Economy," Caepr Working Papers 2006-017, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  2. Bao, Qin & Tang, Ling & Zhang, ZhongXiang & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "Impacts of border carbon adjustments on China's sectoral emissions: Simulations with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 77-94.
  3. Mao Xianqiang & Yang Shuqian & Liu Qin, 2013. "The Way to CO2 Emission Reduction and the Co-benefits of Local Air Pollution Control in China's Transportation Sector: A Policy and Economic Analysis," EEPSEA Research Report rr2013036, Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), revised Mar 2013.
  4. Yuanying Chi & Zhengquan Guo & Yuhua Zheng & Xingping Zhang, 2014. "Scenarios Analysis of the Energies’ Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China Based on a Dynamic CGE Model," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(2), pages 487-512, January.
  5. Li, Zhe, 2008. "Productivity Dispersion across Plants, Emission Abatement, and Environmental Policy," MPRA Paper 9564, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2000. "Can China afford to commit itself an emissions cap? An economic and political analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 587-614, December.
  7. Hübler, Michael, 2011. "Technology diffusion under contraction and convergence: A CGE analysis of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 131-142, January.
  8. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 1999. "Towards a sustainable development of the chinese economy: Accomplishments and challenges in limiting greenhouse gas emissions," MPRA Paper 14258, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Liang, Qiao-Mei & Fan, Ying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Carbon taxation policy in China: How to protect energy- and trade-intensive sectors?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 311-333.
  10. Toh, Mun-Heng & Lin, Qian, 2005. "An evaluation of the 1994 tax reform in China using a general equilibrium model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 246-270.
  11. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 1998. "Is China taking actions to limit its greenhouse gas emissions? past evidence and future prospects," MPRA Paper 13054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 1998. "Joint implementation: sacrifices or opportunities for China?," MPRA Paper 13150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Wang, Zheng & Li, Hua-Qun & Wu, Jing & Gong, Yi & Zhang, Huan-Bo & Zhao, Chen, 2010. "Policy modeling on the GDP spillovers of carbon abatement policies between China and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 40-45, January.
  14. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 1999. "The role of China in combating global climate change," MPRA Paper 13172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Ling Tang & Qin Bao & ZhongXiang Zhang & Shouyang Wang, 2013. "Carbon-based Border Tax Adjustments and China’s International Trade: Analysis based on a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 2013.17, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  16. Lucas Bretschger & Lin Zhang, 2014. "Going beyond tradition: Carbon policy in a high-growth economy: The case of China," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 14/201, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  17. Ling Wang & Zhongchang Chen & Dalai Ma & Pei Zhao, 2013. "Measuring Carbon Emissions Performance in 123 Countries: Application of Minimum Distance to the Strong Efficiency Frontier Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(12), pages 5319-5332, December.
  18. Zhang, Zhongxiang, 2000. "Decoupling China's Carbon Emissions Increase from Economic Growth: An Economic Analysis and Policy Implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 739-752, April.

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