IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v26y2013icp97-107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A model to estimate the origin–destination matrix for soybean exportation in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • da Silva, Marcelino Aurélio Vieira
  • de Almeida D’Agosto, Marcio

Abstract

This article proposes a model to estimate the origin–destination (O–D) matrix for the export flow of Brazilian soybeans based upon a constrained gravity model. The performance of the model was improved by establishing an adjustment criterion for the data, which increased the coefficient of determination of the trend by 24–46%, combined with multi-objective optimization techniques to ensure a balance of the O–D matrix, which yielded R2 values of 0.94 regardless of the prediction year. The model is easy to apply and can help in the strategic planning of transportation for the export of soy products from Brazil, provided that the supply chain configuration is known and the absolute percentage errors are monitored over time.

Suggested Citation

  • da Silva, Marcelino Aurélio Vieira & de Almeida D’Agosto, Marcio, 2013. "A model to estimate the origin–destination matrix for soybean exportation in Brazil," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 97-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:26:y:2013:i:c:p:97-107
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.08.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692312002220
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.08.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hwang, Cherng-Chwan & Shiao, Guo-Chou, 2011. "Analyzing air cargo flows of international routes: an empirical study of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 738-744.
    2. A S Fotheringham, 1986. "Modelling Hierarchical Destination Choice," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 18(3), pages 401-418, March.
    3. S. C. Fang & H.-S. J. Tsao, 1995. "Linearly-Constrained Entropy Maximization Problem with Quadratic Cost and Its Applications to Transportation Planning Problems," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(4), pages 353-365, November.
    4. Douglas Smith, L. & Moses, Steven W., 1996. "Strategic planning of transportation services for petroleum products An application of capacitated gravity models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 215-230, January.
    5. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    6. A S Fotheringham, 1983. "A New Set of Spatial-Interaction Models: The Theory of Competing Destinationsâ€," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 15(1), pages 15-36, January.
    7. Levine, Brian & Nozick, Linda & Jones, Dean, 2009. "Estimating an origin-destination table for US imports of waterborne containerized freight," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 611-626, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Silvia Araújo dos Reis & José Eugenio Leal & Antônio Márcio Tavares Thomé, 2023. "A Two-Stage Stochastic Linear Programming Model for Tactical Planning in the Soybean Supply Chain," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-26, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martínez, L. Miguel & Viegas, José Manuel, 2013. "A new approach to modelling distance-decay functions for accessibility assessment in transport studies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 87-96.
    2. M. Hodgson & Soren Jacobsen, 2009. "A hierarchical location-allocation model with travel based on expected referral distances," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 271-286, March.
    3. Dolega, Les & Pavlis, Michalis & Singleton, Alex, 2016. "Estimating attractiveness, hierarchy and catchment area extents for a national set of retail centre agglomerations," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 78-90.
    4. Yamamoto, Toshiyuki & Li, Cheng & Morikawa, Takayuki, 2014. "An empirical analysis of the factors raising the interest in new shopping destinations," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 950-957.
    5. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2004. "Foreign Direct Investment and European Integration in the 1990s," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 99-110, January.
    6. Islam, Sulequl, 2003. "Expansions of the European Union and the NAFTA: Implications for New and Non-Member countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).
    7. Fetzer, James J. & Rivera, Sandra A., 2005. "Modeling Modifications in Rules of Origin: A Partial Equilibrium Approach," Conference papers 331372, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Hylke Vandenbussche & William Connell & Wouter Simons, 2022. "Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2338-2369, August.
    9. Christopher Edmonds & Sumner J. La Croix & Yao Li, 2006. "The China's Rise as an International Trading Power," Economics Study Area Working Papers 88, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    10. Guglielmo Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 573-573, October.
    11. Michele FRATIANNI & Chang HOON HO, 2007. "On the Relationship Between RTA Expansion and Openness," Working Papers 288, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    12. Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Ana Maria Sova, 2009. "Modelling international trade flows between CEEC and OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1547-1554.
    13. José Miguel Navarro-Azorín & Andrés Artal-Tur, 2017. "How much does urban location matter for growth?," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 298-313, February.
    14. Felipa de Mello-Sampayo, 2017. "Competing-destinations gravity model applied to trade in intermediate goods," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1378-1384, November.
    15. Mr. Rodolphe Blavy, 2001. "Trade in the Mashreq: An Empirical Examination," IMF Working Papers 2001/163, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Tsao, H. S. Jacob & Zhang, Lan & Lin, Lin & Batni, Deepa, 2004. "Evaluation of Bus and Truck Automation Operations Concepts," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt2f41h8fv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    17. Salvador Gil & Rafael Llorca & J. Antonio Martínez‐Serrano, 2008. "Assessing the Enlargement and Deepening of the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1253-1272, September.
    18. Lucian Cernat, 2001. "ASSESSING REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS: ARE SOUTH–SOUTH RTAs MORE TRADE DIVERTING?," International Trade 0109001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Fugazza, Marco & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2006. "Can South-South trade Liberalisation Stimulate North-South Trade ?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 234-253.
    20. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "Disintegration and Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:26:y:2013:i:c:p:97-107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.