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Depopulation or ageing? Decomposing the aggregate effects of projected demographic changes on urban transport systems

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  • Urbanek, Anna
  • Acedański, Jan
  • Krawczyk, Grzegorz

Abstract

Many developed and developing countries are experiencing rapid demographic changes in the form of ageing and depopulation. These processes influence many areas of the economy and are likely to affect the transport behaviours of residents and thus the development of public transport systems. In this study, we combine estimates of age-related determinants of individuals' transport behaviour with demographic projections for the next 30 years to draw quantitative conclusions on the effect of ongoing demographic processes on the transport system. The study is based on data from a large household survey (N = 23,975) conducted in 15 municipalities in the central part of Silesia Province, which is one of the largest metropolitan areas in Central Europe. This industrialized region is projected to experience particularly rapid demographic changes as global demographic trends will be reinforced by depopulation and suburbanization resulting from decarbonization and the green transformation of the local economy. The results clearly show that depopulation will be the main demographic force influencing the transport system in the region studied, while the impact of ageing is limited. For example, the former is expected to decrease the total number of journeys by 30% up to 2050, while the latter will do so only by <4%. We also find a weak impact of ageing on journey structure by modes of transport.

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  • Urbanek, Anna & Acedański, Jan & Krawczyk, Grzegorz, 2023. "Depopulation or ageing? Decomposing the aggregate effects of projected demographic changes on urban transport systems," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:111:y:2023:i:c:s0966692323001345
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2023.103662
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