IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v104y2022ics0966692322001788.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deciphering the influence of TOD on metro ridership: An integrated approach of extended node-place model and interpretable machine learning with planning implications

Author

Listed:
  • Su, Shiliang
  • Wang, Zhuolun
  • Li, Bozhao
  • Kang, Mengjun

Abstract

Many global high-density cities have embraced transit-oriented development (TOD) strategies around metro stations in a strong push toward promoting transit trips. However, the general TOD principles must be adapted to a variety of local features. Thus, conducting a baseline study that deciphers the locality-specific differences and similarities in the influence of TOD on metro ridership is of paramount importance. Using the case of Shanghai in China, this paper demonstrated a novel approach to unveiling the locality-specific influence of TOD on metro ridership that integrated the node-functionality-place model with interpretable machine learning. By exploring a wide range of explanatory variables, we discovered that the relative importance of TOD structural factors (e.g., node, place and functionality) and neighborhood sociodemographics as well as their interactions presented great spatial and temporal heterogeneity for boarding and alighting on weekdays and weekends. Among the TOD structural factors, functionality was of the highest importance, and a greater contribution was observed within the central districts during peak hours. Regarding the interactions among the TOD structural factors, the interaction between node and functionality presented the highest relative importance, followed by that between place between functionality and that between node and place. Additionally, neighborhood sociodemographics also accounted for a noticeable contribution, especially in the outskirts. Based on the locality-specific estimations, the affinity propagation clustering algorithm was further used to cluster the TODs into difference groups as nuanced representations of the TOD-metro ridership relationships. The findings refreshed the knowledge base concerning the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the nonlinear influence of TOD on metro ridership and provided new insights into spatial planning. The proposed approach showed high computational feasibility with strong theoretical underpinnings and thus offered broad potential applications into other high-density cities worldwide.

Suggested Citation

  • Su, Shiliang & Wang, Zhuolun & Li, Bozhao & Kang, Mengjun, 2022. "Deciphering the influence of TOD on metro ridership: An integrated approach of extended node-place model and interpretable machine learning with planning implications," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:104:y:2022:i:c:s0966692322001788
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2022.103455
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692322001788
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2022.103455?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Su, Shiliang & Zhao, Chong & Zhou, Hao & Li, Bozhao & Kang, Mengjun, 2022. "Unraveling the relative contribution of TOD structural factors to metro ridership: A novel localized modeling approach with implications on spatial planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Kamruzzaman, Md. & Shatu, Farjana Mostafiz & Hine, Julian & Turrell, Gavin, 2015. "Commuting mode choice in transit oriented development: Disentangling the effects of competitive neighbourhoods, travel attitudes, and self-selection," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 187-196.
    3. Caset, Freke & Blainey, Simon & Derudder, Ben & Boussauw, Kobe & Witlox, Frank, 2020. "Integrating node-place and trip end models to explore drivers of rail ridership in Flanders, Belgium," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Kim, Seheon & Rasouli, Soora & Timmermans, Harry & Yang, Dujuan, 2018. "Estimating panel effects in probabilistic representations of dynamic decision trees using bayesian generalized linear mixture models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 168-184.
    5. Reid Ewing & Robert Cervero, 2010. "Travel and the Built Environment," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 76(3), pages 265-294.
    6. Liu, Crocker H. & Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Strange, William C., 2020. "Employment density and agglomeration economies in tall buildings," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Zhang, Yuerong & Marshall, Stephen & Manley, Ed, 2019. "Network criticality and the node-place-design model: Classifying metro station areas in Greater London," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Cummings, Christopher & Mahmassani, Hani, 2022. "Does intercity rail station placement matter? Expansion of the node-place model to identify station location impacts on Amtrak ridership," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    9. Dong, Hongwei, 2021. "Evaluating the impacts of transit-oriented developments (TODs) on household transportation expenditures in California," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Kwoka, Gregory J. & Boschmann, E. Eric & Goetz, Andrew R., 2015. "The impact of transit station areas on the travel behaviors of workers in Denver, Colorado," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 277-287.
    11. Nasri, Arefeh & Zhang, Lei, 2019. "Multi-level urban form and commuting mode share in rail station areas across the United States; a seemingly unrelated regression approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 311-319.
    12. Ibraeva, Anna & Van Wee, Bert & Correia, Gonçalo Homem de Almeida & Pais Antunes, António, 2021. "Longitudinal macro-analysis of car-use changes resulting from a TOD-type project: The case of Metro do Porto (Portugal)," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    13. Papa, Enrica & Bertolini, Luca, 2015. "Accessibility and Transit-Oriented Development in European metropolitan areas," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 70-83.
    14. Ibraeva, Anna & Correia, Gonçalo Homem de Almeida & Silva, Cecília & Antunes, António Pais, 2020. "Transit-oriented development: A review of research achievements and challenges," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 110-130.
    15. Dubé, Jean & Thériault, Marius & Des Rosiers, François, 2013. "Commuter rail accessibility and house values: The case of the Montreal South Shore, Canada, 1992–2009," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 49-66.
    16. Lyu, Guowei & Bertolini, Luca & Pfeffer, Karin, 2016. "Developing a TOD typology for Beijing metro station areas," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 40-50.
    17. Arentze, Theo & Timmermans, Harry, 2007. "Parametric action decision trees: Incorporating continuous attribute variables into rule-based models of discrete choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 772-783, August.
    18. Yu, Zidong & Zhu, Xiaolin & Liu, Xintao, 2022. "Characterizing metro stations via urban function: Thematic evidence from transit-oriented development (TOD) in Hong Kong," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    19. Andersson, David Emanuel & Shyr, Oliver F. & Yang, Jimmy, 2021. "Neighbourhood effects on station-level transit use: Evidence from the Taipei metro," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    20. Su, Shiliang & Zhang, Hui & Wang, Miao & Weng, Min & Kang, Mengjun, 2021. "Transit-oriented development (TOD) typologies around metro station areas in urban China: A comparative analysis of five typical megacities for planning implications," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    21. Olaru, Doina & Smith, Brett & Taplin, John H.E., 2011. "Residential location and transit-oriented development in a new rail corridor," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 219-237, March.
    22. Nasri, Arefeh & Zhang, Lei, 2014. "The analysis of transit-oriented development (TOD) in Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metropolitan areas," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 172-179.
    23. Liu, Yunzhe & Singleton, Alex & Arribas-Bel, Daniel, 2020. "Considering context and dynamics: A classification of transit-orientated development for New York City," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    24. Arefeh Nasri & Carlos Carrion & Lei Zhang & Babak Baghaei, 2020. "Using propensity score matching technique to address self-selection in transit-oriented development (TOD) areas," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 359-371, February.
    25. Pezeshknejad, Parsa & Monajem, Saeed & Mozafari, Hamid, 2020. "Evaluating sustainability and land use integration of BRT stations via extended node place model, an application on BRT stations of Tehran," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    26. Li, Zekun & Han, Zixuan & Xin, Jing & Luo, Xin & Su, Shiliang & Weng, Min, 2019. "Transit oriented development among metro station areas in Shanghai, China: Variations, typology, optimization and implications for land use planning," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 269-282.
    27. Kamruzzaman, Md. & Deilami, Kaveh & Yigitcanlar, Tan, 2018. "Investigating the urban heat island effect of transit oriented development in Brisbane," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 116-124.
    28. Delmelle, Elizabeth C., 2021. "Transit-Induced Gentrification and Displacement: The State of the Debate," SocArXiv 5ka2g, Center for Open Science.
    29. Shao, Qifan & Zhang, Wenjia & Cao, Xinyu & Yang, Jiawen & Yin, Jie, 2020. "Threshold and moderating effects of land use on metro ridership in Shenzhen: Implications for TOD planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    30. Phani Kumar, P. & Ravi Sekhar, Ch. & Parida, Manoranjan, 2018. "Residential dissonance in TOD neighborhoods," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 166-177.
    31. Vale, David S., 2015. "Transit-oriented development, integration of land use and transport, and pedestrian accessibility: Combining node-place model with pedestrian shed ratio to evaluate and classify station areas in Lisbo," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 70-80.
    32. Ding, Chuan & Cao, Xinyu & Liu, Chao, 2019. "How does the station-area built environment influence Metrorail ridership? Using gradient boosting decision trees to identify non-linear thresholds," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 70-78.
    33. Yang, Jiawen & Cao, Jason & Zhou, Yufei, 2021. "Elaborating non-linear associations and synergies of subway access and land uses with urban vitality in Shenzhen," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 74-88.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Mingzhi & Zhou, Jiali & Zhou, Jiangping & Lei, Shuyu & Zhao, Zhan, 2023. "Introducing social contacts into the node-place model: A case study of Hong Kong," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    2. Aya Hasan AlKhereibi & Tadesse G. Wakjira & Murat Kucukvar & Nuri C. Onat, 2023. "Predictive Machine Learning Algorithms for Metro Ridership Based on Urban Land Use Policies in Support of Transit-Oriented Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Su, Shiliang & Zhao, Chong & Zhou, Hao & Li, Bozhao & Kang, Mengjun, 2022. "Unraveling the relative contribution of TOD structural factors to metro ridership: A novel localized modeling approach with implications on spatial planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Liao, Cong & Scheuer, Bronte, 2022. "Evaluating the performance of transit-oriented development in Beijing metro station areas: Integrating morphology and demand into the node-place model," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Su, Shiliang & Zhang, Hui & Wang, Miao & Weng, Min & Kang, Mengjun, 2021. "Transit-oriented development (TOD) typologies around metro station areas in urban China: A comparative analysis of five typical megacities for planning implications," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Ibraeva, Anna & Correia, Gonçalo Homem de Almeida & Silva, Cecília & Antunes, António Pais, 2020. "Transit-oriented development: A review of research achievements and challenges," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 110-130.
    5. Ying Liang & Wei Song & Xiaofeng Dong, 2021. "Evaluating the Space Use of Large Railway Hub Station Areas in Beijing toward Integrated Station-City Development," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, November.
    6. Qiaoling Fang & Tomo Inoue & Dongqi Li & Qiang Liu & Jian Ma, 2023. "Transit-Oriented Development and Sustainable Cities: A Visual Analysis of the Literature Based on CiteSpace and VOSviewer," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
    7. Wei Wu & Prasanna Divigalpitiya, 2022. "Assessment of Accessibility and Activity Intensity to Identify Future Development Priority TODs in Hefei City," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, September.
    8. Zhou, Mingzhi & Zhou, Jiali & Zhou, Jiangping & Lei, Shuyu & Zhao, Zhan, 2023. "Introducing social contacts into the node-place model: A case study of Hong Kong," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    9. Ding, Chuan & Cao, Xinyu & Yu, Bin & Ju, Yang, 2021. "Non-linear associations between zonal built environment attributes and transit commuting mode choice accounting for spatial heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 22-35.
    10. Chen, Zhiheng & Li, Peiran & Jin, YanXiu & Bharule, Shreyas & Jia, Ning & Li, Wenjing & Song, Xuan & Shibasaki, Ryosuke & Zhang, Haoran, 2023. "Using mobile phone big data to identify inequity of aging groups in transit-oriented development station usage: A case of Tokyo," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 65-75.
    11. Rao, Fujie & Pafka, Elek, 2021. "Shopping morphologies of urban transit station areas: A comparative study of central city station catchments in Toronto, San Francisco, and Melbourne," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    12. Shin, Yonggeun & Kim, Dong-Kyu & Kim, Eui-Jin, 2022. "Activity-based TOD typology for seoul transit station areas using smart-card data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    13. Phani Kumar, P. & Ravi Sekhar, Ch. & Parida, Manoranjan, 2018. "Residential dissonance in TOD neighborhoods," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 166-177.
    14. Otsuka, Noriko & Wittowsky, Dirk & Damerau, Marlene & Gerten, Christian, 2021. "Walkability assessment for urban areas around railway stations along the Rhine-Alpine Corridor," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Eun Hak Lee & Hosuk Shin & Shin-Hyung Cho & Seung-Young Kho & Dong-Kyu Kim, 2019. "Evaluating the Efficiency of Transit-Oriented Development Using Network Slacks-Based Data Envelopment Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-15, September.
    16. Li, Zekun & Han, Zixuan & Xin, Jing & Luo, Xin & Su, Shiliang & Weng, Min, 2019. "Transit oriented development among metro station areas in Shanghai, China: Variations, typology, optimization and implications for land use planning," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 269-282.
    17. Zhang, Yuerong & Marshall, Stephen & Manley, Ed, 2019. "Network criticality and the node-place-design model: Classifying metro station areas in Greater London," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Zhao, Pengjun & Yang, Hanzi & Kong, Lu & Liu, Yunshu & Liu, Di, 2018. "Disintegration of metro and land development in transition China: A dynamic analysis in Beijing," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 290-307.
    19. Du, Qiang & Zhou, Yuqing & Huang, Youdan & Wang, Yalei & Bai, Libiao, 2022. "Spatiotemporal exploration of the non-linear impacts of accessibility on metro ridership," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    20. Huang, Yu & Parker, Dawn & Minaker, Leia, 2021. "Identifying latent demand for transit-oriented development neighbourhoods: Evidence from a mid-sized urban area in Canada," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:104:y:2022:i:c:s0966692322001788. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.