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Efficient frontiers for electricity procurement by an LDC with multiple purchase options

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  • Woo, Chi-Keung
  • Horowitz, Ira
  • Olson, Arne
  • Horii, Brian
  • Baskette, Carmen

Abstract

In meeting its retail sales obligations, management of a local distribution company (LDC) must determine the extent to which it should rely on spot markets, forward contracts, and the increasingly popular long-term tolling agreements under which it pays a fee to reserve generator capacity. We address these issues by solving a mathematical programming model to derive the efficient frontier that summarizes the optimal tradeoffs available to the LDC between procurement risk and expected cost. To illustrate the approach, we estimate the expected procurement costs and associated variances that proxy for risk through a spot-price regression for the spot-purchase alternative and a variable-cost regression for the tolling-agreement alternative. The estimated regressions yield the estimates required to determine the efficient frontier. We develop several such frontiers under alternative assumptions as to the forward-contract price and the tolling agreement's capacity payment, and discuss the implications of our results for LDC management.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Omega.

Volume (Year): 34 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 70-80

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:34:y:2006:i:1:p:70-80

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Related research

Keywords: Efficient frontier Cross hedging Forward contracts Tolling agreements Partial-adjustment model;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Tishler, Asher & Milstein, Irena & Woo, Chi-Keung, 2008. "Capacity commitment and price volatility in a competitive electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1625-1647, July.
  2. Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J. & Moore, J. & Horowitz, I., 2011. "Wind generation and zonal-market price divergence: Evidence from Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3928-3938, July.
  3. Inderfurth, Karl & Kelle, Peter, 2011. "Capacity reservation under spot market price uncertainty," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 272-279, September.
  4. Zare, Kazem & Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa & Sheikh El Eslami, Mohammad Kazem, 2010. "Electricity procurement for large consumers based on Information Gap Decision Theory," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 234-242, January.
  5. Karl Inderfurth & Peter Kelle & Rainer Kleber, 2011. "Dual Sourcing Using Capacity Reservation and Spot Market: Optimal Procurement Policy and Heuristic Parameter Determination," FEMM Working Papers 110014, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
  6. Inderfurth, Karl & Kelle, Peter & Kleber, Rainer, 2013. "Dual sourcing using capacity reservation and spot market: Optimal procurement policy and heuristic parameter determination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 298-309.
  7. Woo, C.K. & Horowitz, I. & Moore, J. & Pacheco, A., 2011. "The impact of wind generation on the electricity spot-market price level and variance: The Texas experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3939-3944, July.

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