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Re-examining the impact of housing wealth and stock wealth on retail sales: Does persistence in wealth changes matter?

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  • Ashley, Richard
  • Li, Guo

Abstract

Case, Quigley and Shiller (2005, 2013) quantified stock versus housing wealth effects on quarterly state-level retail sales, which they interpret as an approximate measure of household consumption spending. We investigate the variation of these wealth effects with the persistence of each kind of wealth fluctuation in an estimated linear dynamic fixed-effects model, allowing for both cointegration and endogeneity. Retail sales respond most strongly to housing wealth fluctuations which persist for one to four years, whereas the response to stock wealth fluctuations is smaller and is concentrated on fluctuations with a persistence of either less than a year or more than four years. These differential persistence effects point to a need for a richer theoretical formulation in this area.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashley, Richard & Li, Guo, 2014. "Re-examining the impact of housing wealth and stock wealth on retail sales: Does persistence in wealth changes matter?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 109-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:26:y:2014:i:c:p:109-118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2014.09.003
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    Cited by:

    1. I-Chun Tsai & Che-Chun Lin, 2019. "Variations and Influences of Connectedness among US Housing Markets," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(1), pages 27-58.
    2. repec:ire:issued:v:22:n:01:2019:p:27-59 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Ricardo M. Sousa & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "What Can Fifty-Two Collateralizable Wealth Measures Tell Us About Future Housing Market Returns? Evidence from U.S. State-Level Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 81-107, January.
    4. Xiaorong Zhou & Meng-Shiuh Chang & Karen Gibler, 2016. "The asymmetric wealth effects of housing market and stock market on consumption in China," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 196-216, April.
    5. Feng-Li Lin & Mei-Chih Wang & Hsien-Hung Kung, 2020. "Housing and Stock Market Nexus in the US," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 114-130.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wealth effect; Frequency dependence; Persistence dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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