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Frequency Dependence in a Real-Time Monetary Policy Rule

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Author Info

  • Richard Ashley
  • Kwok Ping Tsang
  • Randal J. Verbrugge

Abstract

We estimate a monetary policy rule allowing for possible frequency dependence - i.e. allowing the central bank to respond di¤erently to persistent innovations than to transitory innovations, in both the real-time unemployment rate and the real-time inflation rate. The method is flexible, and requires no strong a priori assumptions on the pattern of frequency dependence or on the nature of the data-generating process. The data convincingly reject linearity in the monetary policy rule, in the direction suggested by theory. Our two major …ndings are 1) the post-Volcker central bank responds more strongly to unemployment rate fluctuations than previous regimes do and 2) while the post-Volcker central bank reacts more strongly to persistent inflation fluctuations, it actually accommodates inflation at higher frequencies.

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File URL: ftp://repec.econ.vt.edu/Papers/Tsang/draft_0127.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number e07-21.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vpi:wpaper:e07-21

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Related research

Keywords: Taylor rule; frequency dependence; spectral regression; real-time data;

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References

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  1. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 67-99, 02.
  3. Richard A. Ashley. & Randall J. Verbrugge., 2006. "Mis-Specification and Frequency Dependence in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers e06-12, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Richard A. Ashley & Randall J. Verbrugge., 2006. "Mis-Specification in Phillips Curve Regressions: Quantifying Frequency Dependence in This Relationship While Allowing for Feedback," Working Papers e06-11, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  5. Richard A. Ashley. & Randall J. Verbrugge, 2006. "Frequency Dependence in Regression Model Coefficients: An Alternative Approach for Modeling Nonlinear Dynamic Relationships in Time Series," Working Papers e06-7, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. repec:vpi:wpaper:e07-42 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Richard A. Ashley & Guo Li, 2013. "Re-Examining the Impact of Housing Wealth and Stock Wealth on Household Spending: Does Persistence in Wealth Changes Matter?," Working Papers e07-38, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.

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