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Credit and social unrest: Evidence from 1930s China

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  • Braggion, Fabio
  • Manconi, Alberto
  • Zhu, Haikun

Abstract

Do credit contractions trigger social unrest? To answer this question, we turn to a natural experiment from 1930s China, where the 1933 U.S. Silver Purchase program acts as a shock to bank lending. We assemble a hand-collected data set of loan contracts between banks and firms, labor unrest episodes, and underground Communist Party penetration. The Silver Purchase shock results in a severe credit contraction, and firms borrowing from banks with a larger exposure to it experience increased labor unrest and Communist Party penetration among their workers. These findings contribute to understanding the socio-political consequences of credit shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Braggion, Fabio & Manconi, Alberto & Zhu, Haikun, 2020. "Credit and social unrest: Evidence from 1930s China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 295-315.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:138:y:2020:i:2:p:295-315
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.05.001
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    2. Doerr, Sebastian & Gissler, Stefan & Peydró, José-Luis & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2022. "Financial crises and political radicalization: How failing banks paved Hitler’s path to power," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 77(6), pages 3339-3372.
    3. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    4. Sebastian Doerr & Stefan Gissler & José-Luis Peydró & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2018. "From finance to fascism," Economics Working Papers 1651, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2020.
    5. Liu, Xiaoling & Wu, Yuhui & Zhang, Huan, 2023. "Collateral-based monetary policy and corporate employment: Evidence from Medium-term Lending Facility in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Filipe R Campante & Davin Chor & Bingjing Li, 2023. "The Political Economy Consequences of China’s Export Slowdown," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 1721-1771.
    7. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03874305, HAL.
    8. Pia Hüttl & Simon Baumgartner, 2023. "When Credit Turns Political: Evidence from the Spanish Financial Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2042, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit shocks; Social unrest;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N25 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Asia including Middle East

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