Price movements and the prevalence of informed traders: The case of line movement in college basketball
AbstractRecent research has hypothesized that a higher concentration of informed traders in a market implies that prices are more efficient. A reasonable next question is whether large price movements in markets with a relatively more informed clientele are more indicative of information realization. We find line movements in college basketball games of relatively low profile, denoted by the lack of a “power conference” team in the contest, are significantly more likely to be the result of information realization. This confirms that substantial price changes in markets with fewer ordinary traders are more (less) likely indicative of information flow (noise).
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economics and Business.
Volume (Year): 68 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconbus
Sports gambling; Line movement; Price changes;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
- L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2007. "Does Sportsbook.com Set Pointspreads to Maximize Profits? Tests of the Levitt Model of Sportsbook Behavior," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(3), pages 209-218, December.
- Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
- Humphreys, Brad R. & Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2013.
"Consumption benefits and gambling: Evidence from the NCAA basketball betting market,"
Journal of Economic Psychology,
Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 376-386.
- Humphreys, Brad & Paul, Rodney & Weinbach, Andrew, 2010. "Consumption Benefits and Gambling: Evidence From the NCAA Basketball Betting Market," Working Papers 2010-7, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
- Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October.
- Badrinath, S G & Kale, Jayant R & Noe, Thomas H, 1995. "Of Shepherds, Sheep, and the Cross-autocorrelations in Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 401-30.
- Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 223-246, 04.
- Holden, Craig W & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1992. " Long-Lived Private Information and Imperfect Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 247-70, March.
- Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
- John M. Gandar & William H. Dare & Craig R. Brown & Richard A. Zuber, 1998. "Informed Traders and Price Variations in the Betting Market for Professional Basketball Games," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 385-401, 02.
- Alex Edmans, 2009. "Blockholder Trading, Market Efficiency, and Managerial Myopia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2481-2513, December.
- L. Lee Colquitt & Norman H. Godwin & Steven B. Caudill, 2001. "Testing Efficiency Across Markets: Evidence from the NCAA Basketball Betting Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1-2), pages 231-248.
- Ekkehart Boehmer & Eric K. Kelley, 2009. "Institutional Investors and the Informational Efficiency of Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3563-3594, September.
- Kevin Krieger & Andy Fodor & Greg Stevenson, 2013. "The Sensitivity of Findings of Expected Bookmaker Profitability," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(2), pages 186-202, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.