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Testing Efficiency Across Markets: Evidence from the NCAA Basketball Betting Market

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  • L. Lee Colquitt
  • Norman H. Godwin
  • Steven B. Caudill

Abstract

This study utilizes the National Collegiate Athletic Association basketball point spread betting market to investigate whether differences in information availability across markets result in different relative efficiencies of price formation within those markets. Using intra‐conference games of various conferences as clearly defined markets, we show that these markets are efficient given the information available in those markets. However, we also show that regression error variances are significantly smaller (greater) for those conferences with greater (lesser) information availability. This evidence supports previous stock market research suggesting that differential fundamental information availability across stock markets results in differential departures from equilibrium values.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Lee Colquitt & Norman H. Godwin & Steven B. Caudill, 2001. "Testing Efficiency Across Markets: Evidence from the NCAA Basketball Betting Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1‐2), pages 231-248, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:28:y:2001:i:1-2:p:231-248
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.00372
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    Cited by:

    1. Krieger, Kevin & Fodor, Andy, 2013. "Price movements and the prevalence of informed traders: The case of line movement in college basketball," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 70-82.
    2. Berkowitz, Jason P. & Depken, Craig A. & Gandar, John M., 2015. "Information and accuracy in pricing: Evidence from the NCAA men׳s basketball betting market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 16-32.
    3. Daniel C. Hickman, 2020. "Efficiency in the madness? examining the betting market for the ncaa men’s basketball tournament," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(3), pages 611-626, July.
    4. L. Lee Colquitt & Norman H. Godwin & Rebecca T. Shortridge, 2007. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Market Prices: Evidence from Coaching Changes in the NBA," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5‐6), pages 861-871, June.
    5. Lopez Michael J. & Matthews Gregory J., 2015. "Building an NCAA men’s basketball predictive model and quantifying its success," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 5-12, March.
    6. Colquitt, L. Lee & Godwin, Norman H. & Swidler, Steve, 2004. "Betting on long shots in NCAA basketball games and implications for skew loving behavior," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 119-126, June.
    7. Justin Cox & Adam L. Schwartz & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Robert A. Van Ness, 2021. "The Predictive Power of College Football Spreads: Regular Season Versus Bowl Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 251-273, April.

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