Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Informed Traders and Price Variations in the Betting Market for Professional Basketball Games

Contents:

Author Info

  • John M. Gandar

    (University of North Carolina at Charlotte and Massey University, New Zealand,)

  • William H. Dare

    (Southwest Texas State University,)

  • Craig R. Brown

    (Ernst and Young, Chicago,)

  • Richard A. Zuber

    (University of North Carolina at Charlotte)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper examines betting line changes from the opening to the closing of the point spread betting market on National Basketball Association games for evidence of informed trader betting. We show that within-betting period line changes significantly improve the accuracy of betting lines as forecasts of game outcomes. We examine individual line change magnitudes and show that these are directly and proportionately related to biases in opening lines. Further, line changes are of sufficient magnitude to remove these biases by the close of betting. We interpret these results as evidence that informed traders are influential in this market. Copyright The American Finance Association 1998.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=jofi&volume=53&issue=1&year=1998&part=null
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 53 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 1 (02)
    Pages: 385-401

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:385-401

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.afajof.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.afajof.org/membership/join.asp

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Brown, Gregory W. & Hartzell, Jay C., 2001. "Market reaction to public information: The atypical case of the Boston Celtics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 333-370, May.
    2. Gandar, John M. & Zuber, Richard A. & Lamb, Reinhold P., 2001. "The home field advantage revisited: a search for the bias in other sports betting markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 439-453.
    3. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2011. ""White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 31469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 257-270.
    5. Raymond Sauer & J. Waller & Jahn Hakes, 2010. "The progress of the betting in a baseball game," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 297-313, March.
    6. Baryla Jr., Edward A. & Borghesi, Richard A. & Dare, William H. & Dennis, Steven A., 2007. "Learning, price formation and the early season bias in the NBA," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 155-164, September.
    7. Schmidt, Carsten & Werwatz, Axel, 2002. "How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,29, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    8. David M Pennock & Sandip Debnath & Eric Glover & C. Lee Giles, 2012. "Modelling Information Incorporation in Markets, with Application to Detecting and Explaining Events," Papers 1301.0594, arXiv.org.
    9. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
    10. Richard Zuber & Patrick Yiu & Reinhold Lamb & John Gandar, 2005. "Investor-fans? An examination of the performance of publicly traded English Premier League teams," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 305-313.
    11. repec:sae:jospec:v:2:y:2001:i:1:p:50-61 is not listed on IDEAS

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:385-401

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.