TFP change, output gap and inflation in the Russian Federation (1994-2006)
AbstractThe present paper estimates Total Factor Productivity (TFP) change for the Russian economy in the time period 1994-2006. It also calculates potential output and output gap using a Cobb-Douglas (CD) production function and a Hodrick-Prescott filter, as well as the Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment (NAWRU), and the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Capacity Utilization (NAICU) concepts. The results show that despite the severe economic crisis TFP has contributed to strong economic growth in the country after 1998, while the output gap, although negative between 1999 and 2003, has recently become positive. The relationship between output gap and inflation is examined and the results suggest that there is a strong (causal) relationship between output gap and inflation in the Russian economy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economics and Business.
Volume (Year): 61 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconbus
TFP Cobb-Douglas HP filter NAWRU NAICU Output gap Inflation Russia;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dainis Stikuts, 2003. "Measuring Output Gap in Latvia," Working Papers 2003/02, Latvijas Banka.
- Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra56-1.
- Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- John Marangos, 2004. "Modelling the privatization process in transition economies," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 585-604.
- Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993.
"Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
- King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993.
"Low frequency filtering and real business cycles,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991.
"Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
- Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 04/146, International Monetary Fund.
- Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
- Paula De Masi, 1997. "IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/177, International Monetary Fund.
- repec:fth:bfdipa:20/2001 is not listed on IDEAS
- W. Bolt & P.J.A. van Els, 2000.
"Output Gap and Inflation in the EU,"
DNB Staff Reports (discontinued)
44, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Henry, S. G. B. & Holden, K., 1990. "Macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 283-284, October.
- Jorgenson, Dale W, 1988. "Productivity and Postwar U.S. Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 23-41, Fall.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
- Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870," NBER Chapters, in: Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870, pages 1-23 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 06/68, International Monetary Fund.
- Ahking, Francis W. & Miller, Stephen M., 1985. "The relationship between government deficits, money growthm and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 447-467.
- Abdelhak Senhadji, 2000. "Sources of Economic Growth: An Extensive Growth Accounting Exercise," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 6.
- John Page, 1994. "The East Asian Miracle: Four Lessons for Development Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 219-282 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Slevin, Geraldine, 2001. "Potential Output and the Output Gap in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/01, Central Bank of Ireland.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.