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The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience

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Alwyn Young
Abstract

This paper documents the fundamental role played by factor accumulation in explaining the extraordinary postwar growth of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. Participation rates, educational levels and (with the exception of Hong Kong) investment rates have risen rapidly in all four economies. In addition, there have been large intersectoral reallocations of labour, with (again, excepting Hong Kong) non-agricultural and manufacturing employment growing one and a half to two times as fast as the aggregate working population. Thus, while the growth of output per capita in these economies has averaged 6% to 7% per annum over the past two and a half decades, the growth of output per effective worker in the non- agricultural sector of these economies has been only 3% to 4% per annum. If one then allows for the doubling, tripling and even quadrupling of the investment to GDP ratio in these economies, one arrives at total factor productivity growth rates, both for the non- agricultural economy and for manufacturing in particular, which are well within the bounds of those experienced by the OECD and Latin American economies over equally long periods of time. While the growth of output and manufacturing exports in the newly industrializing economies of East Asia is virtually unprecedented, the growth of total factor productivity in these economies is not.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4680.

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Date of creation: Mar 1994
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4680

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  1. Wong Fot Chyi, 1995. "Discussion of 'Growth in East Asia: What We Can and What We Cannot Infer From It' and 'The Growth Experience of Japan - What Lessons to Draw?'," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Palle Andersen & Jacqueline Dwyer & David Gruen (ed.), Productivity and Growth Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Groot, H.L.F. de & Schaik, A.B.T.M. van, 1995. "Relative Convergence in a Dual Economy with Tradeable and Non-Tradeable Goods," Discussion Paper 43, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Madanmohan Ghosh & John Whalley, 2000. "State-Owned Enterprises, Shirking and Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 7696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Michael Sarel, 1995. "Growth in East Asia: What We Can and What We Cannot Infer From It," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Palle Andersen & Jacqueline Dwyer & David Gruen (ed.), Productivity and Growth Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  5. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1996. "The Poverty of Nations: A Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 5414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Yukako Murakami & Kyoji Fukao, 2006. "Productivity Spillovers and the Entry of Foreign-Owned Firms: The Case of Japanese Manufacturing Firms," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d06-192, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Luis Gutierrez & Carlos Pombo, 2004. "Firm entry, productivity differentials and turnovers in import substituting markets: a study of the petrochemical industry in Colombia," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002728, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Alan M. Taylor, 1995. "Growth and Convergence in the Asia-Pacific Region: On the Role of Openness, Trade and Migration," NBER Working Papers 5276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Branko Milanovic, 2005. "Inequality And Determinants Of Earnings In Malaysia, 1984-97," Development and Comp Systems 0503007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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