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Follies subdued: Informational efficiency under adaptive expectations and confirmatory bias

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  • Aldashev, Gani
  • Carletti, Timoteo
  • Righi, Simone

Abstract

We study the informational efficiency of a market with a single traded asset. The price initially differs from the fundamental value, about which the agents have noisy private information (which is, on average, correct). A fraction of traders revise their price expectations in each period. The price at which the asset is traded is public information. The agents’ expectations have an adaptive component and a social-interactions component with confirmatory bias. We show that, taken separately, each of the deviations from rationality worsens the informational efficiency of the market. However, when the two biases are combined, the degree of informational inefficiency of the market (measured as the deviation of the long-run market price from the fundamental value of the asset) can be non-monotonic both in the weight of the adaptive component and in the degree of confirmatory bias. For some ranges of parameters, two biases tend to mitigate each other’s effect, thus increasing informational efficiency.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

Volume (Year): 80 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 110-121

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:80:y:2011:i:1:p:110-121

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo

Related research

Keywords: Informational efficiency; Confirmatory bias; Agent-based models; Asset pricing;

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References

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  1. Blouin, Max R & Serrano, Roberto, 2001. "A Decentralized Market with Common Values Uncertainty: Non-Steady States," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 323-46, April.
  2. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
  3. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1997. "What Makes Markets Allocationally Efficient?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 603-30, May.
  4. Wolinsky, Asher, 1990. "Information Revelation in a Market with Pairwise Meetings," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 1-23, January.
  5. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Ernan Haruvy & Yaron Lahav & Charles N. Noussair, 2007. "Traders' Expectations in Asset Markets: Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1901-1920, December.
  7. Darrell Duffie & Gustavo Manso, 2007. "Information Percolation in Large Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 203-209, May.
  8. Brock, William A & Durlauf, Steven N, 2001. "Discrete Choice with Social Interactions," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 235-60, April.
  9. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-37, February.
  10. Milgrom, Paul R, 1981. "Rational Expectations, Information Acquisition, and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 921-43, June.
  11. Joel L. Schrag, 1999. "First Impressions Matter: A Model Of Confirmatory Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 37-82, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Yuri Biondi & Simone Righi, 2013. "What does the financial market pricing do? A simulation analysis with a view to systemic volatility, exuberance and vagary," Papers 1312.7460, arXiv.org.
  2. Biondi, Yuri & Giannoccolo, Pierpaolo & Galam, Serge, 2012. "Formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5532-5545.

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