IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v89y2018icp249-265.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market states, sentiment, and momentum in the corporate bond market

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Lifang
  • Galvani, Valentina

Abstract

We show that momentum profits for corporate bonds depend on the state of the market (UP/DOWN), as already documented for equities. Momentum gains exclusively follow UP periods. In contrast, DOWN markets herald momentum losses. Importantly, this study links momentum gains to underpricing, as measured by low sentiment. In particular, the UP-market momentum gains are generated exclusively by momentum portfolios formed in periods of low sentiment. The DOWN-market reversal returns in low sentiment are even larger than the UP-market momentum gains. We also introduce a novel top-volume bond momentum strategy and show that it yields large and persistent unconditional profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Lifang & Galvani, Valentina, 2018. "Market states, sentiment, and momentum in the corporate bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 249-265.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:89:y:2018:i:c:p:249-265
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.02.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426618300396
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.02.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    2. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    3. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    4. Güntay, Levent & Hackbarth, Dirk, 2010. "Corporate bond credit spreads and forecast dispersion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2328-2345, October.
    5. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2016. "What do asset prices have to say about risk appetite and uncertainty?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 103-118.
    6. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
    7. Tsai, Hui-Ju, 2014. "The informational efficiency of bonds and stocks: The role of institutional sized bond trades," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 34-45.
    8. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    9. Nianyun (Kelly) Cai & Jean Helwege & Arthur Warga, 2007. "Underpricing in the Corporate Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 2021-2046, November.
    10. Jack Bao & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang, 2011. "The Illiquidity of Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 911-946, June.
    11. Chordia, Tarun & Goyal, Amit & Nozawa, Yoshio & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Tong, Qing, 2017. "Are Capital Market Anomalies Common to Equity and Corporate Bond Markets? An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 1301-1342, August.
    12. Gergana Jostova & Stanislava Nikolova & Alexander Philipov & Christof W. Stahel, 2013. "Momentum in Corporate Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1649-1693.
    13. R. David Mclean & Jeffrey Pontiff, 2016. "Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 5-32, February.
    14. Ronen, Tavy & Zhou, Xing, 2013. "Trade and information in the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 61-103.
    15. Gebhardt, William R. & Hvidkjaer, Soeren & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2005. "Stock and bond market interaction: Does momentum spill over?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 651-690, March.
    16. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    17. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Yu-min Yen, 2012. "Bond Variance Risk Premia," FMG Discussion Papers dp699, Financial Markets Group.
    18. Amy K. Edwards & Lawrence E. Harris & Michael S. Piwowar, 2007. "Corporate Bond Market Transaction Costs and Transparency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1421-1451, June.
    19. Chan, Louis K C & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1996. "Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1681-1713, December.
    20. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    21. Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
    22. Michael J. Cooper & Roberto C. Gutierrez & Allaudeen Hameed, 2004. "Market States and Momentum," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1345-1365, June.
    23. Mueller, Philippe & Vedolin, Andrea & Yen, Yu-Min, 2012. "Bond variance risk premia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119053, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    24. Charles M.C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Price Momentum and Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2017-2069, October.
    25. Jennifer Conrad & M. Deniz Yavuzm, 2017. "Momentum and Reversal: Does What Goes Up Always Come Down?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 555-581.
    26. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-581, July.
    27. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    28. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    29. Barroso, Pedro & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2015. "Momentum has its moments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 111-120.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Lemeng & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan & Welch, Robert, 2019. "Pure momentum is priced," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 75-89.
    2. Lifang Li & Valentina Galvani, 2021. "Informed Trading and Momentum in the Corporate Bond Market [Asset pricing with liquidity risk]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1773-1816.
    3. Samuel YM Ze‐To, 2022. "Fundamental index aligned and excess market return predictability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 592-614, April.
    4. Galvani, Valentina & Li, Lifang, 2018. "Asymmetric Information, Predictability and Momentum in the Corporate Bond Market," Working Papers 2018-17, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    5. Chaonan Lin & Nien‐Tzu Yang & Robin K. Chou & Kuan‐Cheng Ko, 2022. "A timing momentum strategy," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(S1), pages 1339-1379, April.
    6. Zhang, Heming & Wang, Guanying, 2021. "Reversal effect and corporate bond pricing in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Houda BenMabrouk & Ismahen Souayeh, 2021. "Momentum profits: Fundamentals or time varying unsystematic risk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 777-789, January.
    8. Galvani, Valentina & Li, Lifang, 2023. "Outliers and momentum in the corporate bond market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 135-148.
    9. Zhuo Li & Meiyu Tian & Guangda Ouyang & Fenghua Wen, 2021. "Relationship between investor sentiment and earnings news in high‐ and low‐sentiment periods," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2748-2765, April.
    10. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Aslanidis, Nektarios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2022. "U.S. banks’ lending, financial stability, and text-based sentiment analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 73-90.
    11. Li, Yulin, 2021. "Investor sentiment and sovereign bonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    12. An-Sing Chen & Che-Ming Yang, 2020. "Momentum Market States And Capital Structure Adjustment Speed," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 14(2), pages 37-49.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Galvani, Valentina & Li, Lifang, 2018. "The Momentum Effect for Canadian Corporate Bonds," Working Papers 2018-16, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, November.
    3. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2018. "Equity market momentum: A synthesis of the literature and suggestions for future work," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 291-296.
    4. Li, Kai, 2021. "Nonlinear effect of sentiment on momentum," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Zhu, Zhaobo & Duan, Xinrui & Sun, Licheng & Tu, Jun, 2019. "Momentum and reversal: The role of short selling," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 95-110.
    6. Ying Hao & Hsiang-Hui Chu & Kuan-Cheng Ko & Lin Lin, 2016. "Momentum Strategies and Investor Sentiment in the REIT Market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 41-71, March.
    7. Ho, Hwai-Chung & Wang, Hsiao-Chuan, 2018. "Momentum lost and found in corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 60-82.
    8. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    9. Sina Ehsani & Juhani T. Linnainmaa, 2019. "Factor Momentum and the Momentum Factor," NBER Working Papers 25551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bali, Turan G. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Wen, Quan, 2021. "Long-term reversals in the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 656-677.
    11. Hao, Ying & Chou, Robin K. & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2018. "The 52-week high, momentum, and investor sentiment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 167-183.
    12. Ming‐Yu Liu, 2019. "Improving momentum strategies using residual returns and option‐implied information," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 499-521, April.
    13. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia, 2022. "Momentum investing: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 87-113, February.
    14. Lifang Li & Valentina Galvani, 2021. "Informed Trading and Momentum in the Corporate Bond Market [Asset pricing with liquidity risk]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1773-1816.
    15. Ashour, Samar & Hao, Grace Qing & Harper, Adam, 2023. "Investor sentiment, style investing, and momentum," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Choi, Jaewon & Kim, Yongjun, 2018. "Anomalies and market (dis)integration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 16-34.
    17. Galvani, Valentina & Li, Lifang, 2018. "Asymmetric Information, Predictability and Momentum in the Corporate Bond Market," Working Papers 2018-17, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    18. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    19. Zhang, Heming & Wang, Guanying, 2021. "Reversal effect and corporate bond pricing in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    20. Teplova, Tamara & Tomtosov, Aleksandr, 2021. "Can high trading volume and volatility switch boost momentum to show greater inefficiency and avoid crashes in emerging markets? The economic relationship in factor investing in emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 210-223.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:89:y:2018:i:c:p:249-265. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.