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A new approach to measuring riskiness in the equity market: Implications for the risk premium

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  • Bali, Turan G.
  • Cakici, Nusret
  • Chabi-Yo, Fousseni

Abstract

We introduce a new approach to measuring riskiness in the equity market. We propose option implied and physical measures of riskiness and investigate their performance in predicting future market returns. The predictive regressions indicate a positive and significant relation between time-varying riskiness and expected market returns. The significantly positive link between aggregate riskiness and market risk premium remains intact after controlling for the S&P 500 index option implied volatility (VIX), aggregate idiosyncratic volatility, and a large set of macroeconomic variables. We also provide alternative explanations for the positive relation by showing that aggregate riskiness is higher during economic downturns characterized by high aggregate risk aversion and high expected returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2015. "A new approach to measuring riskiness in the equity market: Implications for the risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 101-117.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:57:y:2015:i:c:p:101-117
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.03.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Heller, Yuval & Schreiber, Amnon, 2020. "Short-term investments and indices of risk," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(3), July.
    2. Leiss, Matthias & Nax, Heinrich H., 2018. "Option-implied objective measures of market risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 241-249.
    3. Narayan, S. & Le, T.-H. & Sriananthakumar, S., 2018. "The influence of terrorism risk on stock market integration: Evidence from eight OECD countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 247-259.
    4. Chia-Chi Lu & Carl Hsin-han Shen & Pai-Ta Shih & Wei‐Che Tsai, 2023. "Option implied riskiness and risk-taking incentives of executive compensation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1143-1160, April.
    5. Yuval Heller & Amnon Schreiber, 2020. "Short-Term Investments and Indices of Risk," Papers 2005.06576, arXiv.org.
    6. Cao, Charles & Simin, Timothy & Xiao, Han, 2020. "Predicting the equity premium with the implied volatility spread," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    7. Yang, Jen-Wei & Chiu, Shih-Yung & Yen, Kuang-Chieh, 2023. "Does the realized distribution-based measure dominate particular moments? Evidence from cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Cao, Charles & Simin, Timothy & Xiao, Han, 2019. "Predicting the equity premium with the implied volatility spread," MPRA Paper 103651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jing Tian & Qing Zhou, 2018. "Improving equity premium forecasts by incorporating structural break uncertainty," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 619-656, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-varying riskiness; Risk-neutral measures; Physical measures; Expected returns; Equity premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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