Systematic stress tests with entropic plausibility constraints
AbstractStress tests with handpicked scenarios might misrepresent risks either because dangerous scenarios are not considered or because the scenarios considered are too implausible. To overcome these two pitfalls we propose a systematic search for the worst case within a relative entropy ball of sufficiently plausible scenarios. For this purpose we use mixed scenarios, which are risk factor distributions rather than realisations. A Maximum Loss theorem explicitly gives the worst case distribution. The method is illustrated in a number of example applications: linear and quadratic portfolios, stressed default probabilities, stressed correlations, macroeconomic stress tests.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.
Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf
Scenario analysis; Worst case; Risk measures; Multiple priors; Model risk; Relative entropy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
- C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
- C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- M48 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Accounting - - - Government Policy and Regulation
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marco Avellaneda & Craig Friedman & Richard Holmes & Dominick Samperi, 1997. "Calibrating volatility surfaces via relative-entropy minimization," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 37-64.
- Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Giovanni Majnoni & Matthew T. Jones & Winfrid Blaschke, 2001. "Stress Testing of Financial Systems," IMF Working Papers 01/88, International Monetary Fund.
- Marco Avellaneda & Antonio ParAS, 1996. "Managing the volatility risk of portfolios of derivative securities: the Lagrangian uncertain volatility model," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 21-52.
- M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Riccardo Colacito & Lars P. Hansen & Timothy Cogley, 2008. "Robustness and US Monetary," 2008 Meeting Papers 228, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Matthew T. Jones & Graham L. Slack, 2004. "Stress Testing Financial Systems," IMF Working Papers 04/127, International Monetary Fund.
- Breuer, Thomas & Jandačka, Martin & Mencía, Javier & Summer, Martin, 2012.
"A systematic approach to multi-period stress testing of portfolio credit risk,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 332-340.
- Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandačka & Javier Mencía & Martin Summer, 2010. "A systematic approach to multi-period stress testing of portfolio credit risk," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 1018, Banco de Espa�a.
- Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009.
"How to Find Plausible, Severe and Useful Stress Scenarios,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 205-224, September.
- Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to find plausible, severe, and useful stress scenarios," Working Papers 150, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Barillas, Francisco & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2009. "Doubts or variability?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2388-2418, November.
- M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
- Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.