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Systematic stress tests with entropic plausibility constraints

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  • Breuer, Thomas
  • Csiszár, Imre
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    Abstract

    Stress tests with handpicked scenarios might misrepresent risks either because dangerous scenarios are not considered or because the scenarios considered are too implausible. To overcome these two pitfalls we propose a systematic search for the worst case within a relative entropy ball of sufficiently plausible scenarios. For this purpose we use mixed scenarios, which are risk factor distributions rather than realisations. A Maximum Loss theorem explicitly gives the worst case distribution. The method is illustrated in a number of example applications: linear and quadratic portfolios, stressed default probabilities, stressed correlations, macroeconomic stress tests.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 1552-1559

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:5:p:1552-1559

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Scenario analysis; Worst case; Risk measures; Multiple priors; Model risk; Relative entropy;

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    1. Marco Avellaneda & Craig Friedman & Richard Holmes & Dominick Samperi, 1997. "Calibrating volatility surfaces via relative-entropy minimization," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 37-64.
    2. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Giovanni Majnoni & Matthew T. Jones & Winfrid Blaschke, 2001. "Stress Testing of Financial Systems," IMF Working Papers 01/88, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Marco Avellaneda & Antonio ParAS, 1996. "Managing the volatility risk of portfolios of derivative securities: the Lagrangian uncertain volatility model," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 21-52.
    4. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
    5. Thomas J. Sargent & Riccardo Colacito & Lars P. Hansen & Timothy Cogley, 2008. "Robustness and US Monetary," 2008 Meeting Papers 228, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Matthew T. Jones & Graham L. Slack, 2004. "Stress Testing Financial Systems," IMF Working Papers 04/127, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Breuer, Thomas & Jandačka, Martin & Mencía, Javier & Summer, Martin, 2012. "A systematic approach to multi-period stress testing of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 332-340.
    8. Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to Find Plausible, Severe and Useful Stress Scenarios," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 205-224, September.
    9. Barillas, Francisco & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2009. "Doubts or variability?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2388-2418, November.
    10. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
    11. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
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