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The rise of risk-based pricing of mortgage interest rates in Italy

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  • Magri, Silvia
  • Pico, Raffaella

Abstract

This paper assesses how much mortgage interest rates in Italy are priced on credit risk as proxied by the probability of household mortgage delinquency estimated using the EU-Silc database. Owing to data availability, we restrict the analysis of mortgage pricing to Italian households. Consistent with the more widespread use of credit scoring, estimates indicate that Italian lenders have increasingly priced mortgage interest rates on household credit risk. For mortgages granted between 2000 and 2007, we find that a 1% point increase in the probability of default is associated with a 21 basis point rise in mortgage interest rates, lower than the 38 basis point premium Edelberg (2006) estimated for the US at the end of the 1990s.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
Pages: 1277-1290

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:5:p:1277-1290

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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Keywords: Mortgage interest rate Mortgage delinquencies Risk-based pricing;

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References

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  1. Orla May & Merxe Tudela, 2005. "When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach," Bank of England working papers 277, Bank of England.
  2. Berger, Allen N & Frame, W Scott & Miller, Nathan H, 2005. "Credit Scoring and the Availability, Price, and Risk of Small Business Credit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 191-222, April.
  3. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Makoto Nakajima & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2007. "A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1525-1589, November.
  4. Marcello Bofondi & Francesca Lotti, 2006. "Innovation in the Retail Banking Industry: The Diffusion of Credit Scoring," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 343-358, June.
  5. Claessens, Stijn & Demirgüç-Kunt, AslI & Moshirian, Fariborz, 2009. "Global financial crisis, risk analysis and risk measurement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1949-1952, November.
  6. Hartmann, Philipp, 2010. "Interaction of market and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 697-702, April.
  7. Duca, John V & Rosenthal, Stuart S, 1994. "Do Mortgage Rates Vary Based on Household Default Characteristics? Evidence on Rate Sorting and Credit Rationing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 99-113, March.
  8. Edelberg, Wendy, 2006. "Risk-based pricing of interest rates for consumer loans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2283-2298, November.
  9. Giorgio Albareto & Michele Benvenuti & Sauro Mocetti & Marcello Pagnini & Paola Rossi, 2008. "Lending organizational structure and the use of credit scoring: evidence from a survey on Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 12, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  10. Fabio Panetta & Fabiano Schivardi & Matthew Shum, 2004. "Do mergers improve information? Evidence from the loan market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 521, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Lojschová, Adriana & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie, 2010. "Mortgage indebtedness and household financial distress," Working Paper Series 1156, European Central Bank.
  12. Wendy Edelberg, 2003. "Risk-based pricing of interest rates in household loan markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Moshirian, Fariborz, 2011. "The global financial crisis and the evolution of markets, institutions and regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 502-511, March.
  14. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  15. John Geanakoplos, 2001. "Liquidity, Default and Crashes: Endogenous Contracts in General Equilibrium," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1316R2, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2002.
  16. Bester, Helmut, 1987. "The role of collateral in credit markets with imperfect information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 887-899, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Guido de Blasio & Davide Fantino & Guido Pellegrini, 2011. "Evaluating the impact of innovation incentives: evidence from an unexpected shortage of funds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 792, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Elsa Fornero & Chiara Monticone & Serena Trucchi, 2011. "The effect of financial literacy on mortgage choices," CeRP Working Papers 121, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  3. Bover, Olympia & Casado, Jose Maria & Costa, Sonia & Du Caju, Philip & McCarthy, Yvonne & Sierminska, Eva & Tzamourani, Panagiota & Villanueva, Ernesto & Zavadil, Tibor, 2014. "The distribution of debt across euro area countries: The role of individual characteristics, institutions and credit conditions," Discussion Papers 01/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. David ARISTEI & Manuela Gallo, 2012. "The Drivers of Household Over-Indebtedness and Delinquency on Mortgage Loans: Evidence from Italian Microdata," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 105/2012, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica.
  5. Valerio Vacca, 2011. "An unexpected crisis? Looking at pricing effectiveness of different banks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 814, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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