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When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach

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  • Orla May
  • Merxe Tudela

Abstract

Since the mid-1990s the volume of secured lending to households has expanded rapidly, both in absolute terms and in relation to household incomes. This paper examines the determinants of households' ability to service this stock of secured debt. It estimates a random effects probit model for the probability of households having mortgage payment problems. It is found that past experience of payment problems increases the probability that the household has difficulties servicing its secured debt today. At the household level, becoming unemployed, interest income gearing of 20% and above, high loan to value ratios and having a heavy burden of unsecured debt are all associated with a significantly higher probability of mortgage payment problems. Saving regularly and having unsecured debt which is not a problem are both associated with a significantly lower probability of mortgage payment problems. The only non-household-specific variable to have a significant effect is mortgage interest rates - the probability of payment problems increases with the level of mortgage interest rates. An aggregate measure of debt at risk is calculated. This has decreased between 1994 and 2002, as falls in the probability of mortgage payment problems have more than offset increases in the stock of mortgage debt outstanding. It is found that the fall in the probability of mortgage payment problems has been greatest among the most highly indebted households.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 277.

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Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:277

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  1. Brookes, Martin & Dicks, Mike & Pradhan, Mahmood, 1994. "An empirical model of mortgage arrears and repossessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 134-144, April.
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  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
  5. Victoria Redwood & Merxe Tudela, 2004. "From tiny samples do mighty populations grow? Using the British Household Panel Survey to analyse the household sector balance sheet," Bank of England working papers 239, Bank of England.
  6. Böheim, René & Taylor, Mark P., 2000. "My home was my castle: evictions and repossessions in Britain," ISER Working Paper Series 2000-04, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  7. Andrew Henley, 2004. "Self-Employment Status: The Role of State Dependence and Initial Circumstances," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 67-82, 02.
  8. Ana Lasaosa, 2005. "Learning the rules of the new game? Comparing the reactions in financial markets to announcements before and after the Bank of England's operational independence," Bank of England working papers 255, Bank of England.
  9. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
  10. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
  11. Wiji Arulampalam & Alison L. Booth, 2000. "Union status of young men in Britain: a decade of change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 289-310.
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Cited by:
  1. Burcu Duygan-Bump & Charles Grant, 2008. "Household debt repayment behaviour: what role do institutions play?," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU08-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  2. Mathias Drehmann & Steffen Sorensen & Marco Stringa, 2007. "Integrating credit and interest rate risk: A theoretical framework and an application to banks' balance sheets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 151, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  3. Roberto Blanco & Ricardo Gimeno, 2012. "Determinants of default ratios in the segment of loans to households in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1210, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. David ARISTEI & Manuela Gallo, 2012. "The Drivers of Household Over-Indebtedness and Delinquency on Mortgage Loans: Evidence from Italian Microdata," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 105/2012, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica.
  5. Felipe Martínez & Rodrigo Cifuentes & Carlos Madeira & Rubén Poblete-Cazenave, 2013. "Measurement of Household Financial Risk with the Survey of Household Finances," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 682, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Michalis Petrides & Alex Karagrigoriou, 2008. "Determinants of Debt: An Econometric Analysis Based on the Cyprus Survey of Consumer Finances," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(1), pages 45-64.
  7. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Lojschová, Adriana & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie, 2010. "Mortgage indebtedness and household financial distress," Working Paper Series 1156, European Central Bank.
  8. Magri, Silvia & Pico, Raffaella, 2011. "The rise of risk-based pricing of mortgage interest rates in Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1277-1290, May.
  9. Herrala, Risto & Kauko, Karlo, 2007. "Household loan loss risk in Finland – estimations and simulations with micro data," Research Discussion Papers 5/2007, Bank of Finland.
  10. Mitropoulos, Atanasios & Zaidi, Rida, 2009. "Relative indicators of default risk among UK residential mortgages," MPRA Paper 19619, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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