IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v133y2021ics0378426621000984.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The dynamics of non-performing loans during banking crises: A new database with post-COVID-19 implications

Author

Listed:
  • Ari, Anil
  • Chen, Sophia
  • Ratnovski, Lev

Abstract

We present a new dataset on the dynamics of non-performing loans (NPLs) during 92 banking crises since 1990. The data show similarities across crises in NPL buildup but much heterogeneity in the pace of NPL resolution. We document how high and unresolved NPLs deepen post-crisis recessions and use a machine learning approach to establish pre-crisis predictors of NPL problems. These predictors—a set of weak macroeconomic, institutional, corporate, and banking sector conditions—help shed light on post-COVID-19 NPL vulnerabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Ari, Anil & Chen, Sophia & Ratnovski, Lev, 2021. "The dynamics of non-performing loans during banking crises: A new database with post-COVID-19 implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621000984
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426621000984
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106140?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    2. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    3. Brunnermeier, Markus, 2019. "A Crash Course on the Euro Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    6. Lei Li & Philip E. Strahan & Song Zhang, 2020. "Banks as Lenders of First Resort: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Berger, Allen N. & DeYoung, Robert, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 849-870, June.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    9. Viral V Acharya & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger & Christian Hirsch, 2018. "Real Effects of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe: Evidence from Syndicated Loans," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(8), pages 2855-2896.
    10. A. Belloni & D. Chen & V. Chernozhukov & C. Hansen, 2012. "Sparse Models and Methods for Optimal Instruments With an Application to Eminent Domain," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2369-2429, November.
    11. Beck, Roland & Jakubik, Petr & Piloiu, Anamaria, 2013. "Non-performing loans: what matters in addition to the economic cycle?," Working Paper Series 1515, European Central Bank.
    12. Anil Ari, 2015. "Sovereign Risk and Bank Risk-Taking," Working Papers 202, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    13. √Íscar Jord√Ä & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    14. Lei Li & Philip E Strahan & Song Zhang, 2020. "Banks as Lenders of First Resort: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 472-500.
    15. Mr. Reinout De Bock & Mr. Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets: Determinants and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2012/071, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
    17. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences [‘A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 62-118.
    18. Christophe Godlewski, 2004. "Capital Regulation and Credit Risk Taking : Empirical Evidence from Banks in Emerging Market Economies," Finance 0409030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Wolfgang Bergthaler & Jose M Garrido & Ms. Anna Ilyina & Andreas Jobst & Mr. Kenneth H Kang & Dmitriy Kovtun & Ms. Yan Liu & Mr. Dermot Monaghan & Ms. Marina Moretti, 2015. "A Strategy for Resolving Europe's Problem Loans," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/019, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Abdelkader Boudriga & Neila Boulila Taktak & Sana Jellouli, 2009. "Banking supervision and nonperforming loans: a cross‐country analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(4), pages 286-318, November.
    21. Kareken, John H & Wallace, Neil, 1978. "Deposit Insurance and Bank Regulation: A Partial-Equilibrium Exposition," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 413-438, July.
    22. Lei Li & Philip E Strahan & Song Zhang, 0. "Banks as Lenders of First Resort: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 472-500.
    23. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2018. "Systemic Banking Crises Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2018/206, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Kaushik Bhattacharya, 2003. "How good is the BankScope database? A cross-validation exercise with correction factors for market concentration measures," BIS Working Papers 133, Bank for International Settlements.
    25. Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/161, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2017. "New Evidence on the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3072-3118, October.
    27. Shekhar Aiyar & Wolfgang Bergthaler & Jose M Garrido & Anna Ilyina & Andreas Jobst & Kenneth H Kang & Dmitriy Kovtun & Yan Liu & Dermot Monaghan & Marina Moretti, 2015. "A Strategy for Resolving Europe's Problem Loans," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/19, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cândida Ferreira, 2022. "Determinants of Non-performing Loans: A Panel Data Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(3), pages 133-153, November.
    2. Matteo Foglia, 2022. "Non-Performing Loans and Macroeconomics Factors: The Italian Case," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, January.
    3. Pisicoli, Beniamino, 2023. "Financial development, diversity, and economic stability: Micro and systemic evidence," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 187-200.
    4. Andrea Bellucci & Gianluca Gucciardi, 2023. "A Turning Point for Banking: Unravelling the Changing Landscape of Banking Activity in Europe since the COVID-19 pandemic," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 183, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    5. Andreea Maura Bobiceanu & Ioana Georgiana Fä‚Rcaè˜, 2022. "Covid Crisis Effects On Non-Performing Loans In The Romanian Banking Market," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 30, pages 25-37, December.
    6. Douglas J. Cumming & Andrea Martinez-Salgueiro & Robert S. Reardon & Ahmed Sewaid, 2022. "COVID-19 bust, policy response, and rebound: equity crowdfunding and P2P versus banks," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 47(6), pages 1825-1846, December.
    7. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Liu, Jinjing & Zhang, Jie, 2023. "Effect of COVID-19 on non-performing loans in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Khalil Alnabulsi & Emira Kozarević & Abdelaziz Hakimi, 2023. "Non-Performing Loans as a Driver of Banking Distress: A Systematic Literature Review," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-20, April.
    9. Várkonyi, Patrik & Szücs, Tamás & Cziglerné, Erb Edina & Pasitka, Ármin, 2024. "A pénzügyi instrumentumok új számviteli standardja a Covid árnyékában [European banks implementation of IFRS 9 in the shadow of the pandemic]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 201-222.
    10. Polina Popova, 2024. "COVID-19, Corporate Non-performing Loans, and Corporate Lending Dynamics: Evidence from Russian Regions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 93/FE/2024, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Tomasz Korol & Anestis K. Fotiadis, 2022. "Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 407-438, June.
    12. Kaelo Ntwaepelo & Grivas Chiyaba, 2022. "Financial Stability Surveillance Tools: Evaluating the Performance of Stress Indices," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-06, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    13. George ANTON & Cosmin-Octavian CEPOI & Cătălin-Emilian HUIDUMAC-PETRESCU, 2022. "Estimating Probability of Default for Systemically Important Financial Institutions during Covid-19 Pandemic. Evidence from Europe and USA," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 44-53, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Anil Ari & Sophia Chen & Mr. Lev Ratnovski, 2019. "The Dynamics of Non-Performing Loans during Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2019/272, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.
    3. Wix, Carlo, 2017. "The long-run real effects of banking crises: Firm-level investment dynamics and the role of wage rigidity," SAFE Working Paper Series 189, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/oqlq05oa890qa4mag2svqh4ht is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4u5amfvji89k4pj64fk8bf01dm is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Krishnamurthy, Arvind & Li, Wenhao, 2020. "Dissecting Mechanisms of Financial Crises: Intermediation and Sentiment," Research Papers 3874, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    7. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa, 2022. "How did house and stock prices respond to different crisis episodes since the 1870s?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    8. Kenny, Seán & Lennard, Jason & Turner, John D., 2021. "The macroeconomic effects of banking crises: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750–1938," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Claudio Borio & Marc Farag & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Tackling the fiscal policy-financial stability nexus," BIS Working Papers 1090, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Alberto Montagnoli & Mirko Moro, 2018. "The Cost of Banking Crises: New Evidence from Life Satisfaction Data," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(2), pages 279-309, May.
    11. Barthélémy, Sylvain & Binet, Marie-Estelle & Pentecôte, Jean-Sébastien, 2020. "Worldwide economic recoveries from financial crises through the decades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    12. Òscar Jordá & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Sovereigns Versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-79.
    13. Clément Mathonnat & Alexandru Minea & Marcel Voia, 2022. "Does more finance lead to longer crises?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 111-135, January.
    14. Fernandez-Gallardo, Alvaro, 2023. "Preventing financial disasters: Macroprudential policy and financial crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    15. Didier, Tatiana & Huneeus, Federico & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Financing firms in hibernation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    16. Demosthenes Tambakis, 2021. "A Markov chain measure of systemic banking crisis frequency," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(16), pages 1351-1356, September.
    17. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2021. "Predictors of bank distress: The 1907 crisis in Sweden," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Jenter, Dirk & Aldunate, Felipe & Korteweg, Arthur & Koudijs, Peter, 2021. "Shareholder Liability and Bank Failure," CEPR Discussion Papers 16309, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Ari, Anil, 2018. "Gambling traps," Working Paper Series 2217, European Central Bank.
    20. Devereux, John & Dwyer, Gerald P., 2016. "What determines output losses after banking crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 69-94.
    21. Bodea, Cristina & Houle, Christian & Kim, Hyunwoo, 2021. "Do financial crises increase income inequality?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    22. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2017. "New Evidence on the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3072-3118, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-performing loans; Debt; Banking crises; Recessions; Crisis resolution; COVID;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621000984. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.