Expert forecasting with and without uncertainty quantification and weighting: What do the data say?
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.06.007
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References listed on IDEAS
- Kevin J. Wilson & Malcolm Farrow, 2018. "Combining Judgements from Correlated Experts," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Luis C. Dias & Alec Morton & John Quigley (ed.), Elicitation, chapter 0, pages 211-240, Springer.
- Wilson, Kevin J., 2017. "An investigation of dependence in expert judgement studies with multiple experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 325-336.
- John Quigley & Abigail Colson & Willy Aspinall & Roger M. Cooke, 2018. "Elicitation in the Classical Model," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Luis C. Dias & Alec Morton & John Quigley (ed.), Elicitation, chapter 0, pages 15-36, Springer.
- Colson, Abigail R. & Cooke, Roger M., 2017. "Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 109-120.
- Eggstaff, Justin W. & Mazzuchi, Thomas A. & Sarkani, Shahram, 2014. "The effect of the number of seed variables on the performance of Cooke′s classical model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 72-82.
- Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Robert L. Winkler, 2013. "Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1594-1611, July.
- Abigail R Colson & Roger M Cooke, 2018. "Expert Elicitation: Using the Classical Model to Validate Experts’ Judgments," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 113-132.
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Cited by:
- Howard, Peter H. & Sterner, Thomas, 2022. "Between Two Worlds: Methodological and Subjective Differences in Climate Impact Meta-Analyses," RFF Working Paper Series 22-10, Resources for the Future.
- Gayan Dharmarathne & Gabriela F. Nane & Andrew Robinson & Anca M. Hanea, 2023. "Shrinking the Variance in Experts’ “Classical” Weights Used in Expert Judgment Aggregation," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-14, August.
- Alipourfard, Nazanin & Arendt, Beatrix & Benjamin, Daniel Jacob & Benkler, Noam & Bishop, Michael Metcalf & Burstein, Mark & Bush, Martin & Caverlee, James & Chen, Yiling & Clark, Chae, 2021. "Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence (SCORE)," SocArXiv 46mnb, Center for Open Science.
- Roger M. Cooke, 2023. "Averaging quantiles, variance shrinkage, and overconfidence," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), March.
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Keywords
Calibration; Combining forecasts; Evaluating forecasts; Judgmental forecasting; Panel data; Simulation;All these keywords.
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