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A commentary on “how to interpret expert judgment assessments of twenty-first century sea-level rise” by Hylke de Vries and Roderik SW van de Wal

Author

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  • JL Bamber

    (University of Bristol)

  • WP Aspinall

    (University of Bristol)

  • RM Cooke

    (TU Delft, The Netherlands (ret) and Resources for the Future)

Abstract

We clarify key aspects of the evaluation, by de Vries and van de Wal (2015), of our expert elicitation paper on the contributions of ice sheet melting to sea level rise due to future global temperature rise scenarios (Bamber and Aspinall 2013), and extend the conversation with further analysis of their proposed approach for combining expert uncertainty judgments.

Suggested Citation

  • JL Bamber & WP Aspinall & RM Cooke, 2016. "A commentary on “how to interpret expert judgment assessments of twenty-first century sea-level rise” by Hylke de Vries and Roderik SW van de Wal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 321-328, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:137:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1672-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1672-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cooke, Roger M. & Goossens, Louis L.H.J., 2008. "TU Delft expert judgment data base," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 657-674.
    2. James M. Murphy & David M. H. Sexton & David N. Barnett & Gareth S. Jones & Mark J. Webb & Matthew Collins & David A. Stainforth, 2004. "Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(7001), pages 768-772, August.
    3. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Robert L. Winkler, 2013. "Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1594-1611, July.
    4. Roger M. Cooke, 2015. "Messaging climate change uncertainty," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 8-10, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander M. R. Bakker & Domitille Louchard & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 339-347, February.
    2. Colson, Abigail R. & Cooke, Roger M., 2017. "Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 109-120.
    3. Despoina Makariou & Pauline Barrieu & George Tzougas, 2021. "A Finite Mixture Modelling Perspective for Combining Experts’ Opinions with an Application to Quantile-Based Risk Measures," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-25, June.
    4. Abigail R Colson & Roger M Cooke, 2018. "Expert Elicitation: Using the Classical Model to Validate Experts’ Judgments," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 113-132.

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