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Messaging climate change uncertainty

Author

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  • Roger M. Cooke

    (Roger M. Cooke is at Resources for the Future, 1616 P st NW, Washington DC, 20036, USA, and Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, 199 Cathedral Street, Glasgow G4 0QU, UK)

Abstract

Climate change is full of uncertainty and the messengers of climate science are not getting the uncertainty narrative right. To communicate uncertainty one must first understand it, and then avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger M. Cooke, 2015. "Messaging climate change uncertainty," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 8-10, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:5:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_nclimate2466
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2466
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. W P Aspinall & R M Cooke & A H Havelaar & S Hoffmann & T Hald, 2016. "Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Simon French & Nikolaos Argyris & Stephanie M. Haywood & Matthew C. Hort & Jim Q. Smith, 2019. "Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 9-16, January.
    3. Zhang, Xi & Geng, Yong & Shao, Shuai & Wilson, Jeffrey & Song, Xiaoqian & You, Wei, 2020. "China’s non-fossil energy development and its 2030 CO2 reduction targets: The role of urbanization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    4. Fang, Kai & Li, Chenglin & Tang, Yiqi & He, Jianjian & Song, Junnian, 2022. "China’s pathways to peak carbon emissions: New insights from various industrial sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    5. JL Bamber & WP Aspinall & RM Cooke, 2016. "A commentary on “how to interpret expert judgment assessments of twenty-first century sea-level rise” by Hylke de Vries and Roderik SW van de Wal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 321-328, August.
    6. Céline Guivarch & Julie Rozenberg & Vanessa Schweizer, 2016. "The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database," Post-Print halshs-01292901, HAL.
    7. Zhang, Xi & Geng, Yong & Shao, Shuai & Dong, Huijuan & Wu, Rui & Yao, Tianli & Song, Jiekun, 2020. "How to achieve China’s CO2 emission reduction targets by provincial efforts? – An analysis based on generalized Divisia index and dynamic scenario simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Colson, Abigail R. & Cooke, Roger M., 2017. "Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 109-120.
    9. Thomas David Pol & Jochen Hinkel, 2019. "Uncertainty representations of mean sea-level change: a telephone game?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 393-411, March.
    10. Durante Fabrizio & Puccetti Giovanni & Scherer Matthias & Vanduffel Steven, 2017. "The Vine Philosopher: An interview with Roger Cooke," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 256-267, December.
    11. Charlie Wilson & Céline Guivarch & Elmar Kriegler & Bas Ruijven & Detlef P. Vuuren & Volker Krey & Valeria Jana Schwanitz & Erica L. Thompson, 2021. "Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-22, May.
    12. Frank Stadler & Luke Houghton, 2020. "Breathing life into climate change adaptation," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(2), pages 400-409, April.
    13. Laura Diaz Anadon & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2016. "Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&D," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 677-691, June.
    14. Cooke, Roger M. & Marti, Deniz & Mazzuchi, Thomas, 2021. "Expert forecasting with and without uncertainty quantification and weighting: What do the data say?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 378-387.
    15. Abigail R Colson & Itamar Megiddo & Gerardo Alvarez-Uria & Sumanth Gandra & Tim Bedford & Alec Morton & Roger M Cooke & Ramanan Laxminarayan, 2019. "Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance: Comparing structured expert judgment and statistical forecasting methods," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-18, July.

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