IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v35y2019i4p1499-1519.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Operational solar forecasting for the real-time market

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Dazhi
  • Wu, Elynn
  • Kleissl, Jan

Abstract

Despite the significant progress made in solar forecasting over the last decade, most of the proposed models cannot be readily used by independent system operators (ISOs). This article proposes an operational solar forecasting algorithm that is closely aligned with the real-time market (RTM) forecasting requirements of the California ISO (CAISO). The algorithm first uses the North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast system to generate hourly forecasts for a 5-h period that are issued 12 h before the actual operating hour, satisfying the lead-time requirement. Subsequently, the world’s fastest similarity search algorithm is adopted to downscale the hourly forecasts generated by NAM to a 15-min resolution, satisfying the forecast-resolution requirement. The 5-h-ahead forecasts are repeated every hour, following the actual rolling update rate of CAISO. Both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated using the proposed algorithm are empirically evaluated over a period of 2 years at 7 locations in 5 climate zones.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Dazhi & Wu, Elynn & Kleissl, Jan, 2019. "Operational solar forecasting for the real-time market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1499-1519.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1499-1519
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019300755
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alessandrini, S. & Delle Monache, L. & Sperati, S. & Cervone, G., 2015. "An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 95-110.
    2. Ren, Ye & Suganthan, P.N. & Srikanth, N., 2015. "Ensemble methods for wind and solar power forecasting—A state-of-the-art review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 82-91.
    3. Yang, Dazhi & Sharma, Vishal & Ye, Zhen & Lim, Lihong Idris & Zhao, Lu & Aryaputera, Aloysius W., 2015. "Forecasting of global horizontal irradiance by exponential smoothing, using decompositions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 111-119.
    4. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2017. "Forecasting with temporal hierarchies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(1), pages 60-74.
    5. Kaur, Amanpreet & Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Benefits of solar forecasting for energy imbalance markets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 819-830.
    6. Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Lim, Edwin & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2018. "A database infrastructure to implement real-time solar and wind power generation intra-hour forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 513-525.
    7. Yang, Dazhi, 2018. "A correct validation of the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 152-155.
    8. Dong, Zibo & Yang, Dazhi & Reindl, Thomas & Walsh, Wilfred M., 2013. "Short-term solar irradiance forecasting using exponential smoothing state space model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1104-1113.
    9. van der Meer, D.W. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Review on probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power production and electricity consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1484-1512.
    10. Cervone, Guido & Clemente-Harding, Laura & Alessandrini, Stefano & Delle Monache, Luca, 2017. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks and an Analog Ensemble," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 274-286.
    11. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    12. Akarslan, Emre & Hocaoglu, Fatih Onur, 2017. "A novel method based on similarity for hourly solar irradiance forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 337-346.
    13. Aguiar, L. Mazorra & Pereira, B. & Lauret, P. & Díaz, F. & David, M., 2016. "Combining solar irradiance measurements, satellite-derived data and a numerical weather prediction model to improve intra-day solar forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 599-610.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abhnil Amtesh Prasad & Merlinde Kay, 2021. "Prediction of Solar Power Using Near-Real Time Satellite Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Benefits of physical and machine learning hybridization for photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Quan, Hao & Yang, Dazhi, 2020. "Probabilistic solar irradiance transposition models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Paulescu, Marius & Blaga, Robert & Dughir, Ciprian & Stefu, Nicoleta & Sabadus, Andreea & Calinoiu, Delia & Badescu, Viorel, 2023. "Intra-hour PV power forecasting based on sky imagery," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    5. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting using a calibrated ensemble of model chains," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Visser, Lennard & AlSkaif, Tarek & van Sark, Wilfried, 2022. "Operational day-ahead solar power forecasting for aggregated PV systems with a varying spatial distribution," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 267-282.
    7. Yang, Dazhi & Yang, Guoming & Liu, Bai, 2023. "Combining quantiles of calibrated solar forecasts from ensemble numerical weather prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    8. Zhang, Gang & Yang, Dazhi & Galanis, George & Androulakis, Emmanouil, 2022. "Solar forecasting with hourly updated numerical weather prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. Markovics, Dávid & Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Comparison of machine learning methods for photovoltaic power forecasting based on numerical weather prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    10. Mayer, Martin János & Gróf, Gyula, 2021. "Extensive comparison of physical models for photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    11. Lin, Fan & Zhang, Yao & Wang, Jianxue, 2023. "Recent advances in intra-hour solar forecasting: A review of ground-based sky image methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 244-265.
    12. Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Wenting & Gueymard, Christian A. & Hong, Tao & Kleissl, Jan & Huang, Jing & Perez, Marc J. & Perez, Richard & Bright, Jamie M. & Xia, Xiang’ao & van der Meer, Dennis & Peters, Ian , 2022. "A review of solar forecasting, its dependence on atmospheric sciences and implications for grid integration: Towards carbon neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    13. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. Liu, Bai & Yang, Dazhi & Mayer, Martin János & Coimbra, Carlos F.M. & Kleissl, Jan & Kay, Merlinde & Wang, Wenting & Bright, Jamie M. & Xia, Xiang’ao & Lv, Xin & Srinivasan, Dipti & Wu, Yan & Beyer, H, 2023. "Predictability and forecast skill of solar irradiance over the contiguous United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    15. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Impact of the tilt angle, inverter sizing factor and row spacing on the photovoltaic power forecast accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    16. Houben, Nikolaus & Cosic, Armin & Stadler, Michael & Mansoor, Muhammad & Zellinger, Michael & Auer, Hans & Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2023. "Optimal dispatch of a multi-energy system microgrid under uncertainty: A renewable energy community in Austria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    17. Armando Castillejo-Cuberos & John Boland & Rodrigo Escobar, 2021. "Short-Term Deterministic Solar Irradiance Forecasting Considering a Heuristics-Based, Operational Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-24, September.
    18. Chen, Xiaoyang & Du, Yang & Lim, Enggee & Fang, Lurui & Yan, Ke, 2022. "Towards the applicability of solar nowcasting: A practice on predictive PV power ramp-rate control," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 147-166.
    19. Ioannis-Panagiotis Raptis & Stelios Kazadzis & Ilias Fountoulakis & Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou & Dimitra Kouklaki & Basil E. Psiloglou & Andreas Kazantzidis & Charilaos Benetatos & Nikolaos Papadimi, 2023. "Evaluation of the Solar Energy Nowcasting System (SENSE) during a 12-Months Intensive Measurement Campaign in Athens, Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-19, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Zhang, Gang & Yang, Dazhi & Galanis, George & Androulakis, Emmanouil, 2022. "Solar forecasting with hourly updated numerical weather prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Buzna, Luboš & De Falco, Pasquale & Ferruzzi, Gabriella & Khormali, Shahab & Proto, Daniela & Refa, Nazir & Straka, Milan & van der Poel, Gijs, 2021. "An ensemble methodology for hierarchical probabilistic electric vehicle load forecasting at regular charging stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    4. Carneiro, Tatiane C. & Rocha, Paulo A.C. & Carvalho, Paulo C.M. & Fernández-Ramírez, Luis M., 2022. "Ridge regression ensemble of machine learning models applied to solar and wind forecasting in Brazil and Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    5. Yagli, Gokhan Mert & Yang, Dazhi & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2022. "Ensemble solar forecasting and post-processing using dropout neural network and information from neighboring satellite pixels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    6. Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Wenting & Gueymard, Christian A. & Hong, Tao & Kleissl, Jan & Huang, Jing & Perez, Marc J. & Perez, Richard & Bright, Jamie M. & Xia, Xiang’ao & van der Meer, Dennis & Peters, Ian , 2022. "A review of solar forecasting, its dependence on atmospheric sciences and implications for grid integration: Towards carbon neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    7. Munkhammar, Joakim & van der Meer, Dennis & Widén, Joakim, 2021. "Very short term load forecasting of residential electricity consumption using the Markov-chain mixture distribution (MCM) model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    8. Luis Mazorra-Aguiar & Philippe Lauret & Mathieu David & Albert Oliver & Gustavo Montero, 2021. "Comparison of Two Solar Probabilistic Forecasting Methodologies for Microgrids Energy Efficiency," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-26, March.
    9. Pierro, Marco & De Felice, Matteo & Maggioni, Enrico & Moser, David & Perotto, Alessandro & Spada, Francesco & Cornaro, Cristina, 2020. "Residual load probabilistic forecast for reserve assessment: A real case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 508-522.
    10. Mitrentsis, Georgios & Lens, Hendrik, 2022. "An interpretable probabilistic model for short-term solar power forecasting using natural gradient boosting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    11. van der Meer, D.W. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Review on probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power production and electricity consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1484-1512.
    12. Yin, Wansi & Han, Yutong & Zhou, Hai & Ma, Ming & Li, Li & Zhu, Honglu, 2020. "A novel non-iterative correction method for short-term photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 23-32.
    13. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
    14. Wang, Xiaoyang & Sun, Yunlin & Luo, Duo & Peng, Jinqing, 2022. "Comparative study of machine learning approaches for predicting short-term photovoltaic power output based on weather type classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    15. Trapero, Juan R., 2016. "Calculation of solar irradiation prediction intervals combining volatility and kernel density estimates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 266-274.
    16. Akarslan, Emre & Hocaoglu, Fatih Onur & Edizkan, Rifat, 2018. "Novel short term solar irradiance forecasting models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 58-66.
    17. Chao-Rong Chen & Unit Three Kartini, 2017. "k-Nearest Neighbor Neural Network Models for Very Short-Term Global Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Meteorological Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    18. Reikard, Gordon & Hansen, Clifford, 2019. "Forecasting solar irradiance at short horizons: Frequency and time domain models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1270-1290.
    19. Nikolaos Kolokas & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Dimitrios Tzovaras, 2021. "Multi-Step Energy Demand and Generation Forecasting with Confidence Used for Specification-Free Aggregate Demand Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-36, May.
    20. Hanany Tolba & Nouha Dkhili & Julien Nou & Julien Eynard & Stéphane Thil & Stéphane Grieu, 2020. "Multi-Horizon Forecasting of Global Horizontal Irradiance Using Online Gaussian Process Regression: A Kernel Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-23, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1499-1519. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.