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Intra-hour PV power forecasting based on sky imagery

Author

Listed:
  • Paulescu, Marius
  • Blaga, Robert
  • Dughir, Ciprian
  • Stefu, Nicoleta
  • Sabadus, Andreea
  • Calinoiu, Delia
  • Badescu, Viorel

Abstract

This paper introduces an upgraded version of the PV2-state model [Paulescu et al. Renew Energy 195 (2022) 322] for intra-hour photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting. The model incorporates real-time adjustments to the estimated clear-sky PV power or the transmittance of clouds, considering the Sun coverage by clouds. A physics-based approach for processing cloud field information from an all-sky imager is proposed to intra-hour forecast SSN, a binary quantifier stating whether the Sun is shining (SSN = 1) or not (SSN = 0). The model performance with the new procedure is investigated from three perspectives: forecast accuracy, forecast precision and the response to the variability in the state-of-the-sky. The study was conducted with high-quality 1-min data collected from a micro-PV plant, on a sample of days with scattered clouds. PV2-state demonstrates notable performance particularly under challenging conditions, where models typically struggle to perform well. In terms of skill score, the overall model performance ranges between 10 and 20%, and under very high variability conditions even exceeding four times the purely statistical forecast. For the operationally relevant 15-min horizon, PV2-state exhibits a noteworthy precision, with two-thirds of forecasts falling within a 10% tolerance interval. Even under severe conditions roughly one third falls in this 10% interval.

Suggested Citation

  • Paulescu, Marius & Blaga, Robert & Dughir, Ciprian & Stefu, Nicoleta & Sabadus, Andreea & Calinoiu, Delia & Badescu, Viorel, 2023. "Intra-hour PV power forecasting based on sky imagery," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:279:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223015293
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.128135
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paulescu, Marius & Badescu, Viorel & Brabec, Marek, 2013. "Tools for PV (photovoltaic) plant operators: Nowcasting of passing clouds," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 104-112.
    2. Paulescu, Marius & Paulescu, Eugenia, 2019. "Short-term forecasting of solar irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 985-994.
    3. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Bailek, Nadjem & Bouchouicha, Kada & Nwokolo, Samuel Chukwujindu, 2021. "Ultra-short-term exogenous forecasting of photovoltaic power production using genetically optimized non-linear auto-regressive recurrent neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 191-209.
    4. Mellit, A. & Pavan, A. Massi & Lughi, V., 2021. "Deep learning neural networks for short-term photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 276-288.
    5. Li, Yanting & Su, Yan & Shu, Lianjie, 2014. "An ARMAX model for forecasting the power output of a grid connected photovoltaic system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 78-89.
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    7. Tawn, R. & Browell, J., 2022. "A review of very short-term wind and solar power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Paulescu, Marius & Stefu, Nicoleta & Dughir, Ciprian & Sabadus, Andreea & Calinoiu, Delia & Badescu, Viorel, 2022. "A simple but accurate two-state model for nowcasting PV power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 322-330.
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