IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v86y2016icp819-830.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Benefits of solar forecasting for energy imbalance markets

Author

Listed:
  • Kaur, Amanpreet
  • Nonnenmacher, Lukas
  • Pedro, Hugo T.C.
  • Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

Abstract

Short term electricity trading to balance generation and demand provides an economic opportunity to integrate larger shares of variable renewable energy sources in the power grid. Recently, many regulatory market environments are reorganized to allow short term electricity trading. This study seeks to quantify the benefits of solar forecasting for energy imbalance markets (EIM). State-of-the-art solar forecasts, covering forecast horizons ranging from 24 h to 5 min are proposed and compared against the currently used benchmark models, persistence (P) and smart persistence (SP). The implemented reforecast of numerical weather prediction time series achieves a skill of 14.5% over the smart persistence model. Using the proposed forecasts for a forecast horizon of up to 75 min for a single 1 MW power plant reduces required flexibility reserves by 21% and 16.14%, depending on the allowed trading intervals (5 and 15 min). The probability of an imbalance, caused through wrong market bids from PV solar plants, can be reduced by 19.65% and 15.12% (for 5 and 15 min trading intervals). All EIM stakeholders benefit from accurate forecasting. Previous estimates on the benefits of EIMs, based on persistence model are conservative. It is shown that the design variables regulating the market time lines, the bidding and the binding schedules, drive the benefits of forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaur, Amanpreet & Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Benefits of solar forecasting for energy imbalance markets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 819-830.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:86:y:2016:i:c:p:819-830
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2015.09.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148115302901
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2015.09.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Qi & Zhang, Chunyu & Ding, Yi & Xydis, George & Wang, Jianhui & Østergaard, Jacob, 2015. "Review of real-time electricity markets for integrating Distributed Energy Resources and Demand Response," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 695-706.
    2. Cifor, Angela & Denholm, Paul & Ela, Erik & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Reed, Adam, 2015. "The policy and institutional challenges of grid integration of renewable energy in the western United States," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 34-41.
    3. Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2015. "Nearest-neighbor methodology for prediction of intra-hour global horizontal and direct normal irradiances," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 770-782.
    4. Zagouras, Athanassios & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2015. "On the role of lagged exogenous variables and spatio–temporal correlations in improving the accuracy of solar forecasting methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 203-218.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chu, Yinghao & Li, Mengying & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Sun-tracking imaging system for intra-hour DNI forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA), pages 792-799.
    2. Eissa, M.M., 2018. "First time real time incentive demand response program in smart grid with “i-Energy” management system with different resources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 607-621.
    3. Lork, Clement & Li, Wen-Tai & Qin, Yan & Zhou, Yuren & Yuen, Chau & Tushar, Wayes & Saha, Tapan K., 2020. "An uncertainty-aware deep reinforcement learning framework for residential air conditioning energy management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    4. Wang, Yi & Qiu, Dawei & Sun, Mingyang & Strbac, Goran & Gao, Zhiwei, 2023. "Secure energy management of multi-energy microgrid: A physical-informed safe reinforcement learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    5. Elsinga, Boudewijn & van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M., 2017. "Short-term peer-to-peer solar forecasting in a network of photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1464-1483.
    6. Raman, Gururaghav & Zhao, Bo & Peng, Jimmy Chih-Hsien & Weidlich, Matthias, 2022. "Adaptive incentive-based demand response with distributed non-compliance assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    7. Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Kaur, Amanpreet & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Day-ahead resource forecasting for concentrated solar power integration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 866-876.
    8. Wang, Ge & Zhang, Qi & Li, Hailong & McLellan, Benjamin C. & Chen, Siyuan & Li, Yan & Tian, Yulu, 2017. "Study on the promotion impact of demand response on distributed PV penetration by using non-cooperative game theoretical analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1869-1878.
    9. Khan, Muhammad T. & Thopil, George Alex & Lalk, Jorg, 2016. "Review of proposals for practical power sector restructuring and reforms in a dynamic electricity supply industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 326-335.
    10. Gabriella Ferruzzi & Giorgio Graditi & Federico Rossi, 2020. "A joint approach for strategic bidding of a microgrid in energy and spinning reserve markets," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(1), pages 88-115, February.
    11. Ussama Assad & Muhammad Arshad Shehzad Hassan & Umar Farooq & Asif Kabir & Muhammad Zeeshan Khan & S. Sabahat H. Bukhari & Zain ul Abidin Jaffri & Judit Oláh & József Popp, 2022. "Smart Grid, Demand Response and Optimization: A Critical Review of Computational Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-36, March.
    12. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    13. Wang, Lu & Gu, Wei & Wu, Zhi & Qiu, Haifeng & Pan, Guangsheng, 2020. "Non-cooperative game-based multilateral contract transactions in power-heating integrated systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    14. Ju, Liwei & Tan, Zhongfu & Yuan, Jinyun & Tan, Qingkun & Li, Huanhuan & Dong, Fugui, 2016. "A bi-level stochastic scheduling optimization model for a virtual power plant connected to a wind–photovoltaic–energy storage system considering the uncertainty and demand response," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 184-199.
    15. Neda Hajibandeh & Mehdi Ehsan & Soodabeh Soleymani & Miadreza Shafie-khah & João P. S. Catalão, 2017. "The Mutual Impact of Demand Response Programs and Renewable Energies: A Survey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-18, September.
    16. Iria, José & Soares, Filipe & Matos, Manuel, 2019. "Optimal bidding strategy for an aggregator of prosumers in energy and secondary reserve markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1361-1372.
    17. Luo, Qingsong & Zhou, Yimin & Hou, Weicheng & Peng, Lei, 2022. "A hierarchical blockchain architecture based V2G market trading system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    18. Islam, Md. Monirul & Irfan, Muhammad & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption in Bangladesh: The relative influencing profiles of economic factors, urbanization, physical infrastructure and institutional quality," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1130-1149.
    19. Matthew Gough & Sérgio F. Santos & Mohammed Javadi & Rui Castro & João P. S. Catalão, 2020. "Prosumer Flexibility: A Comprehensive State-of-the-Art Review and Scientometric Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-32, May.
    20. Wang, Jiawei & You, Shi & Zong, Yi & Træholt, Chresten & Dong, Zhao Yang & Zhou, You, 2019. "Flexibility of combined heat and power plants: A review of technologies and operation strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 1-1.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:86:y:2016:i:c:p:819-830. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.