IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v283y2021ics0306261920316330.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extensive comparison of physical models for photovoltaic power forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Mayer, Martin János
  • Gróf, Gyula

Abstract

Forecasting the power production of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) power plants is essential for both the profitability and the prospects of the technology. Physically inspired modelling represents a common approach in calculating the expected power output from numerical weather prediction data. The model selection has a high effect on physical PV power forecasting accuracy, as the difference between the most and least accurate model chains is 13% in mean absolute error (MAE), 12% in root mean square error (RMSE), and 23–33% in skill scores for a PV plant on average. The power forecast performance analysis performed and verified for one-year 15-min resolution production data of 16 PV plants in Hungary for day-ahead and intraday time horizons on all possible combinations of nine direct and diffuse irradiance separation, ten tilted irradiance transposition, three reflection loss, five cell temperature, four PV module performance, two shading loss, and three inverter models.

Suggested Citation

  • Mayer, Martin János & Gróf, Gyula, 2021. "Extensive comparison of physical models for photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:283:y:2021:i:c:s0306261920316330
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116239
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920316330
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116239?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Sun, Xixi & Bright, Jamie M. & Gueymard, Christian A. & Acord, Brendan & Wang, Peng & Engerer, Nicholas A., 2019. "Worldwide performance assessment of 75 global clear-sky irradiance models using Principal Component Analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 550-570.
    3. Santiago, I. & Trillo-Montero, D. & Moreno-Garcia, I.M. & Pallarés-López, V. & Luna-Rodríguez, J.J., 2018. "Modeling of photovoltaic cell temperature losses: A review and a practice case in South Spain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 70-89.
    4. Theocharides, Spyros & Makrides, George & Livera, Andreas & Theristis, Marios & Kaimakis, Paris & Georghiou, George E., 2020. "Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    5. Castellano, Nuria Novas & Gázquez Parra, José Antonio & Valls-Guirado, Juan & Manzano-Agugliaro, Francisco, 2015. "Optimal displacement of photovoltaic array’s rows using a novel shading model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 1-9.
    6. Yang, Dazhi & Wu, Elynn & Kleissl, Jan, 2019. "Operational solar forecasting for the real-time market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1499-1519.
    7. Mayer, Martin János & Szilágyi, Artúr & Gróf, Gyula, 2020. "Environmental and economic multi-objective optimization of a household level hybrid renewable energy system by genetic algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Quan, Hao & Yang, Dazhi, 2020. "Probabilistic solar irradiance transposition models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    9. Martin Hofmann & Gunther Seckmeyer, 2017. "Influence of Various Irradiance Models and Their Combination on Simulation Results of Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-24, September.
    10. Zepter, Jan Martin & Weibezahn, Jens, 2019. "Unit commitment under imperfect foresight – The impact of stochastic photovoltaic generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 336-349.
    11. Larson, David P. & Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Day-ahead forecasting of solar power output from photovoltaic plants in the American Southwest," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 11-20.
    12. Amaro e Silva, R. & Brito, M.C., 2019. "Spatio-temporal PV forecasting sensitivity to modules’ tilt and orientation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    13. Abreu, Edgar F.M. & Canhoto, Paulo & Costa, Maria João, 2019. "Prediction of diffuse horizontal irradiance using a new climate zone model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 28-42.
    14. Ana Maria Gracia Amillo & Thomas Huld & Paraskevi Vourlioti & Richard Müller & Matthew Norton, 2015. "Application of Satellite-Based Spectrally-Resolved Solar Radiation Data to PV Performance Studies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-34, April.
    15. Leva, S. & Dolara, A. & Grimaccia, F. & Mussetta, M. & Ogliari, E., 2017. "Analysis and validation of 24 hours ahead neural network forecasting of photovoltaic output power," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 88-100.
    16. Starke, Allan R. & Lemos, Leonardo F.L. & Boland, John & Cardemil, José M. & Colle, Sergio, 2018. "Resolution of the cloud enhancement problem for one-minute diffuse radiation prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 472-484.
    17. de la Parra, I. & Muñoz, M. & Lorenzo, E. & García, M. & Marcos, J. & Martínez-Moreno, F., 2017. "PV performance modelling: A review in the light of quality assurance for large PV plants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 780-797.
    18. Mattei, M. & Notton, G. & Cristofari, C. & Muselli, M. & Poggi, P., 2006. "Calculation of the polycrystalline PV module temperature using a simple method of energy balance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 553-567.
    19. Chin, Vun Jack & Salam, Zainal & Ishaque, Kashif, 2015. "Cell modelling and model parameters estimation techniques for photovoltaic simulator application: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 500-519.
    20. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda, 2019. "A comparison of day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasting models based on deep learning neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    21. Ogliari, Emanuele & Dolara, Alberto & Manzolini, Giampaolo & Leva, Sonia, 2017. "Physical and hybrid methods comparison for the day ahead PV output power forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 11-21.
    22. Ridley, Barbara & Boland, John & Lauret, Philippe, 2010. "Modelling of diffuse solar fraction with multiple predictors," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 478-483.
    23. Li, Yanting & He, Yong & Su, Yan & Shu, Lianjie, 2016. "Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 392-401.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Benefits of physical and machine learning hybridization for photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Impact of the tilt angle, inverter sizing factor and row spacing on the photovoltaic power forecast accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    3. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting using a calibrated ensemble of model chains," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Wang, Xiaoyang & Sun, Yunlin & Luo, Duo & Peng, Jinqing, 2022. "Comparative study of machine learning approaches for predicting short-term photovoltaic power output based on weather type classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    5. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Bailek, Nadjem & Bouchouicha, Kada & Nwokolo, Samuel Chukwujindu, 2021. "Ultra-short-term exogenous forecasting of photovoltaic power production using genetically optimized non-linear auto-regressive recurrent neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 191-209.
    6. Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Estimating 1-min beam and diffuse irradiance from the global irradiance: A review and an extensive worldwide comparison of latest separation models at 126 stations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    7. Nguyen, Thi Ngoc & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    8. Wang, Jianzhou & Zhou, Yilin & Li, Zhiwu, 2022. "Hour-ahead photovoltaic generation forecasting method based on machine learning and multi objective optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    9. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi, 2023. "Pairing ensemble numerical weather prediction with ensemble physical model chain for probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    10. Oh, Myeongchan & Kim, Chang Ki & Kim, Boyoung & Yun, Changyeol & Kim, Jin-Young & Kang, Yongheack & Kim, Hyun-Goo, 2022. "Analysis of minute-scale variability for enhanced separation of direct and diffuse solar irradiance components using machine learning algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    11. Sarmas, Elissaios & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Stamatopoulos, Efstathios & Marinakis, Vangelis & Doukas, Haris, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using meta-learning and numerical weather prediction independent Long Short-Term Memory models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Khan, Waqas & Walker, Shalika & Zeiler, Wim, 2022. "Improved solar photovoltaic energy generation forecast using deep learning-based ensemble stacking approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    13. Armando Castillejo-Cuberos & John Boland & Rodrigo Escobar, 2021. "Short-Term Deterministic Solar Irradiance Forecasting Considering a Heuristics-Based, Operational Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-24, September.
    14. Medine Colak & Mehmet Yesilbudak & Ramazan Bayindir, 2020. "Daily Photovoltaic Power Prediction Enhanced by Hybrid GWO-MLP, ALO-MLP and WOA-MLP Models Using Meteorological Information," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-19, February.
    15. Thi Ngoc Nguyen & Felix Musgens, 2021. "What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?," Papers 2111.02092, arXiv.org.
    16. Martina Radicioni & Valentina Lucaferri & Francesco De Lia & Antonino Laudani & Roberto Lo Presti & Gabriele Maria Lozito & Francesco Riganti Fulginei & Riccardo Schioppo & Mario Tucci, 2021. "Power Forecasting of a Photovoltaic Plant Located in ENEA Casaccia Research Center," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, January.
    17. Chen, Xiaoyang & Du, Yang & Lim, Enggee & Fang, Lurui & Yan, Ke, 2022. "Towards the applicability of solar nowcasting: A practice on predictive PV power ramp-rate control," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 147-166.
    18. Markovics, Dávid & Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Comparison of machine learning methods for photovoltaic power forecasting based on numerical weather prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    19. Erdener, Burcin Cakir & Feng, Cong & Doubleday, Kate & Florita, Anthony & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2022. "A review of behind-the-meter solar forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    20. Jimyung Kang & Jooseung Lee & Soonwoo Lee, 2023. "Data-Driven Minute-Ahead Forecast of PV Generation with Adjacent PV Sector Information," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-16, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:283:y:2021:i:c:s0306261920316330. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.