IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v110y2019icp28-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of diffuse horizontal irradiance using a new climate zone model

Author

Listed:
  • Abreu, Edgar F.M.
  • Canhoto, Paulo
  • Costa, Maria João

Abstract

Knowledge on the diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI), and direct normal irradiance (DNI) is crucial for the estimation of the irradiance on tilted surfaces, which in turn is critical for photovoltaic (PV) applications and for designing and simulating concentrated solar power (CSP) plants. Since global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is the most commonly measured solar radiation variable, it is advantageous for establishing a suitable method that uses it to compute DHI and DNI. In this way, a new model for predicting the diffuse fraction (Kd) based on the climate zone is proposed, using only the clearness index (Kt) as the predictor and 1-min resolution GHI data. A review of the literature on models that use hourly and sub-hourly Kt values to compute Kd was also carried out, and an extensive performance assessment of both the proposed model and the models from the literature was conducted using ten statistical indicators and a global performance index (GPI). A set of model parameters was determined for each climate zone considered in this study (arid, high albedo, temperate and tropical) using 48 worldwide radiometric stations. It was found that the best overall performing model was the model proposed in this work.

Suggested Citation

  • Abreu, Edgar F.M. & Canhoto, Paulo & Costa, Maria João, 2019. "Prediction of diffuse horizontal irradiance using a new climate zone model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 28-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:110:y:2019:i:c:p:28-42
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2019.04.055
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032119302679
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2019.04.055?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaddoura, Tarek O. & Ramli, Makbul A.M. & Al-Turki, Yusuf A., 2016. "On the estimation of the optimum tilt angle of PV panel in Saudi Arabia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 626-634.
    2. Mondol, Jayanta Deb & Yohanis, Yigzaw G. & Norton, Brian, 2008. "Solar radiation modelling for the simulation of photovoltaic systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1109-1120.
    3. Lee, Kwanho & Yoo, Hochun & Levermore, Geoff J., 2013. "Quality control and estimation hourly solar irradiation on inclined surfaces in South Korea," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 190-199.
    4. Jamil, Basharat & Akhtar, Naiem, 2017. "Comparison of empirical models to estimate monthly mean diffuse solar radiation from measured data: Case study for humid-subtropical climatic region of India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1326-1342.
    5. Jamil, Basharat & Akhtar, Naiem, 2017. "Comparative analysis of diffuse solar radiation models based on sky-clearness index and sunshine period for humid-subtropical climatic region of India: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 329-355.
    6. Al-Riahi, M. & Al-Hamdani, N. & Tahir, K., 1992. "An empirical method for estimation of hourly diffuse fraction of global radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 451-456.
    7. Despotovic, Milan & Nedic, Vladimir & Despotovic, Danijela & Cvetanovic, Slobodan, 2015. "Review and statistical analysis of different global solar radiation sunshine models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1869-1880.
    8. Hijazin, Maher I., 1998. "The diffuse fraction of hourly solar radiation for Amman/Jordan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 249-253.
    9. Elminir, Hamdy K. & Azzam, Yosry A. & Younes, Farag I., 2007. "Prediction of hourly and daily diffuse fraction using neural network, as compared to linear regression models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1513-1523.
    10. Oliveira, Amauri P. & Escobedo, João F. & Machado, Antonio J. & Soares, Jacyra, 2002. "Correlation models of diffuse solar-radiation applied to the city of São Paulo, Brazil," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 59-73, January.
    11. Torres, J.L. & De Blas, M. & García, A. & de Francisco, A., 2010. "Comparative study of various models in estimating hourly diffuse solar irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1325-1332.
    12. Soares, Jacyra & Oliveira, Amauri P. & Boznar, Marija Zlata & Mlakar, Primoz & Escobedo, João F. & Machado, Antonio J., 2004. "Modeling hourly diffuse solar-radiation in the city of São Paulo using a neural-network technique," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 201-214, October.
    13. Marques Filho, Edson P. & Oliveira, Amauri P. & Vita, Willian A. & Mesquita, Francisco L.L. & Codato, Georgia & Escobedo, João F. & Cassol, Mariana & França, José Ricardo A., 2016. "Global, diffuse and direct solar radiation at the surface in the city of Rio de Janeiro: Observational characterization and empirical modeling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 64-74.
    14. Jacovides, C.P. & Tymvios, F.S. & Assimakopoulos, V.D. & Kaltsounides, N.A., 2006. "Comparative study of various correlations in estimating hourly diffuse fraction of global solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(15), pages 2492-2504.
    15. Gueymard, Christian A., 2014. "A review of validation methodologies and statistical performance indicators for modeled solar radiation data: Towards a better bankability of solar projects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1024-1034.
    16. Boland, John & Ridley, Barbara & Brown, Bruce, 2008. "Models of diffuse solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 575-584.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Benefits of physical and machine learning hybridization for photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Oh, Myeongchan & Kim, Chang Ki & Kim, Boyoung & Yun, Changyeol & Kim, Jin-Young & Kang, Yongheack & Kim, Hyun-Goo, 2022. "Analysis of minute-scale variability for enhanced separation of direct and diffuse solar irradiance components using machine learning algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    3. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting using a calibrated ensemble of model chains," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi, 2023. "Pairing ensemble numerical weather prediction with ensemble physical model chain for probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    5. Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Estimating 1-min beam and diffuse irradiance from the global irradiance: A review and an extensive worldwide comparison of latest separation models at 126 stations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Mayer, Martin János & Gróf, Gyula, 2021. "Extensive comparison of physical models for photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    7. Ailton M. Tavares & Ricardo Conceição & Francisco M. Lopes & Hugo G. Silva, 2022. "Development of a Simple Methodology Using Meteorological Data to Evaluate Concentrating Solar Power Production Capacity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-27, October.
    8. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Akoush, Bassem M. & Abubakr, Mohamed & Campana, Pietro Elia & Khalil, Adel, 2021. "High-resolution estimates of diffuse fraction based on dynamic definitions of sky conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 641-659.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jamil, Basharat & Akhtar, Naiem, 2017. "Comparative analysis of diffuse solar radiation models based on sky-clearness index and sunshine period for humid-subtropical climatic region of India: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 329-355.
    2. Jamil, Basharat & Akhtar, Naiem, 2017. "Comparison of empirical models to estimate monthly mean diffuse solar radiation from measured data: Case study for humid-subtropical climatic region of India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1326-1342.
    3. Jamil, Basharat & Akhtar, Naiem, 2017. "Estimation of diffuse solar radiation in humid-subtropical climatic region of India: Comparison of diffuse fraction and diffusion coefficient models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 149-164.
    4. Seyed Abbas Mousavi Maleki & H. Hizam & Chandima Gomes, 2017. "Estimation of Hourly, Daily and Monthly Global Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces: Models Re-Visited," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, January.
    5. Huang, Kuo-Tsang, 2020. "Identifying a suitable hourly solar diffuse fraction model to generate the typical meteorological year for building energy simulation application," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 1102-1115.
    6. Marques Filho, Edson P. & Oliveira, Amauri P. & Vita, Willian A. & Mesquita, Francisco L.L. & Codato, Georgia & Escobedo, João F. & Cassol, Mariana & França, José Ricardo A., 2016. "Global, diffuse and direct solar radiation at the surface in the city of Rio de Janeiro: Observational characterization and empirical modeling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 64-74.
    7. Liu, Peirong & Tong, Xiaojuan & Zhang, Jinsong & Meng, Ping & Li, Jun & Zhang, Jingru, 2020. "Estimation of half-hourly diffuse solar radiation over a mixed plantation in north China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1360-1369.
    8. Feng, Lan & Lin, Aiwen & Wang, Lunche & Qin, Wenmin & Gong, Wei, 2018. "Evaluation of sunshine-based models for predicting diffuse solar radiation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 168-182.
    9. Chen, Ji-Long & He, Lei & Chen, Qiao & Lv, Ming-Quan & Zhu, Hong-Lin & Wen, Zhao-Fei & Wu, Sheng-Jun, 2019. "Study of monthly mean daily diffuse and direct beam radiation estimation with MODIS atmospheric product," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 221-232.
    10. Furlan, Claudia & de Oliveira, Amauri Pereira & Soares, Jacyra & Codato, Georgia & Escobedo, João Francisco, 2012. "The role of clouds in improving the regression model for hourly values of diffuse solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 240-254.
    11. Yin, Kaili & Zhang, Xiaojing & Xie, Jingchao & Hao, Ziyang & Xiao, Guofeng & Liu, Jiaping, 2023. "Modeling hourly solar diffuse fraction on a horizontal surface based on sky conditions clustering," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    12. Božnar, Marija Zlata & Grašič, Boštjan & Oliveira, Amauri Pereira de & Soares, Jacyra & Mlakar, Primož, 2017. "Spatially transferable regional model for half-hourly values of diffuse solar radiation for general sky conditions based on perceptron artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 794-810.
    13. Kuo, Chia-Wei & Chang, Wen-Chey & Chang, Keh-Chin, 2014. "Modeling the hourly solar diffuse fraction in Taiwan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 56-61.
    14. Lou, Siwei & Li, Danny H.W. & Lam, Joseph C. & Chan, Wilco W.H., 2016. "Prediction of diffuse solar irradiance using machine learning and multivariable regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 367-374.
    15. Karakoti, Indira & Pande, Bimal & Pandey, Kavita, 2011. "Evaluation of different diffuse radiation models for Indian stations and predicting the best fit model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 2378-2384, June.
    16. Madeleine McPherson & Theofilos Sotiropoulos-Michalakakos & LD Danny Harvey & Bryan Karney, 2017. "An Open-Access Web-Based Tool to Access Global, Hourly Wind and Solar PV Generation Time-Series Derived from the MERRA Reanalysis Dataset," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-14, July.
    17. El-Sebaii, A.A. & Al-Hazmi, F.S. & Al-Ghamdi, A.A. & Yaghmour, S.J., 2010. "Global, direct and diffuse solar radiation on horizontal and tilted surfaces in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 568-576, February.
    18. Mondol, Jayanta Deb & Yohanis, Yigzaw G. & Norton, Brian, 2008. "Solar radiation modelling for the simulation of photovoltaic systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1109-1120.
    19. Farhadi, Rouhollah & Taki, Morteza, 2020. "The energy gain reduction due to shadow inside a flat-plate solar collector," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 730-740.
    20. Wang, Lunche & Lu, Yunbo & Zou, Ling & Feng, Lan & Wei, Jing & Qin, Wenmin & Niu, Zigeng, 2019. "Prediction of diffuse solar radiation based on multiple variables in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 151-216.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:110:y:2019:i:c:p:28-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.