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People consultation to construct the future: A Delphi application

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  • Landeta, Jon
  • Barrutia, Jon
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    Abstract

    This work presents the Delphi method, in its Policy Delphi variant, as an efficient mechanism for carrying out consultations regarding regulatory actions that affect professional bureaucracies, and also, in the last analysis, for forecasting and constructing their future. The Delphi application presented here incorporates some specific characteristics which are aimed at making the plurality of opinions in the organisation under analysis visible, facilitating reasoned debate, minimising the risk of manipulation by study leaders, and maximising the generalised acceptance of the results by the whole collective. This study was performed on the university community of the Basque Country, prior to the enactment of the Act which was to organise the Basque university system. Its results, which were accepted as being representative of the real dissensus existing in the community, constituted a valuable input for the final drawing up of the Act, and for its acceptance without conflict. This Delphi application cannot be classified within its traditional field of exploratory forecasting, but it can be situated within the normative sphere, geared towards the construction of a desired future.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 134-151

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y::i:1:p:134-151

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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    Keywords: Policy Delphi Dissensus Relational public administration Governance Judgemental forecasting Professional bureaucracy Public policy making;

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    1. Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer, 1963. "An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 458-467, April.
    2. Jarle Trondal, 2007. "The Public Administration Turn in Integration Research," ARENA Working Papers 7, ARENA.
    3. Nielsen, Christine & Thangadurai, Mohan, 2007. "Janus and the Delphi Oracle: Entering the new world of international business research," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 147-163, June.
    4. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1996. "The impact of task characteristics on the performance of structured group forecasting techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 73-89, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Wright, George & Rowe, Gene, 2011. "Group-based judgmental forecasting: An integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-13, January.
    2. Alyami, Saleh. H. & Rezgui, Yacine & Kwan, Alan, 2013. "Developing sustainable building assessment scheme for Saudi Arabia: Delphi consultation approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 43-54.

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