IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inteco/v168y2021icp98-114.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How does terms of trade volatility affect macroeconomic volatility? The roles of financial development and institutions

Author

Listed:
  • Avom, Désiré
  • Kamguia, Brice
  • Ngameni, Joseph Pasky
  • Njangang, Henri

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of terms-of-trade volatility on growth volatility. It also investigates whether financial development and institutional quality mitigate the negative effect of terms-of-trade volatility on growth volatility. The model is empirically tested for 45 African countries over the period 1997–2017. The empirical strategy is based on the generalized method of moments, and the following results are established. Strong evidence is provided to support that terms of trade volatility increases growth volatility in African countries. The results further indicate that institutional quality mitigates the negative effect of terms-of-trade volatility. When financial development is considered, we provide evidence that financial development is a shock absorber, with financial institutions having a stronger effect than financial markets. These results are robust to the use of alternative measures of growth volatility, terms of trade volatility, and different specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Avom, Désiré & Kamguia, Brice & Ngameni, Joseph Pasky & Njangang, Henri, 2021. "How does terms of trade volatility affect macroeconomic volatility? The roles of financial development and institutions," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 98-114.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:168:y:2021:i:c:p:98-114
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2021.08.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701721000640
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.inteco.2021.08.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Gertler, 1988. "Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 559-596.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 1999. "Capital Markets and the Instability of Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Kangni Kpodar & Patrick Imam, 2016. "Does a Regional Trade Agreement Lessen or Worsen Growth Volatility? An Empirical Investigation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 949-979, November.
    4. Raddatz, Claudio, 2006. "Liquidity needs and vulnerability to financial underdevelopment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 677-722, June.
    5. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler & Jonathan Temple, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Papers 2001-W21, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    6. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    7. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
    8. Lisa Chauvet & Marin Ferry & Patrick Guillaumont & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney & Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba & Laurent Wagner, 2019. "Volatility widens inequality. Could aid and remittances help?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(1), pages 71-104, February.
    9. Markus Brueckner & Francisco Carneiro, 2017. "Terms of trade volatility, government spending cyclicality, and economic growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 975-989, November.
    10. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    11. Roland Kangni KPODAR & Maëlan LE GOFF & Raju Jan SINGH, 2018. "Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Growth Volatility in Low-Income Countries," Working Papers P238, FERDI.
    12. Guariglia, Alessandra & Liu, Pei, 2014. "To what extent do financing constraints affect Chinese firms' innovation activities?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 223-240.
    13. Denizer Cevdet A. & Iyigun Murat F. & Owen Ann, 2002. "Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, October.
    14. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
    15. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    16. Hasan, Iftekhar & Wachtel, Paul & Zhou, Mingming, 2009. "Institutional development, financial deepening and economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-170, January.
    17. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1998. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Economic Development," International Economic Association Series, in: Silvio Borner & Martin Paldam (ed.), The Political Dimension of Economic Growth, chapter 5, pages 97-116, Palgrave Macmillan.
    18. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. "Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December.
    19. Duncan, Roberto, 2014. "Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 113-155.
    20. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2001. "A Theory of Political Transitions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 938-963, September.
    21. Clague, Christopher & Keefer, Philip & Knack, Stephen & Olson, Mancur, 1996. "Property and Contract Rights in Autocracies and Democracies," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 243-276, June.
    22. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2006. "Growth volatility and financial liberalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 370-403, April.
    23. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472, Elsevier.
    24. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
    25. repec:imf:imfsdn:15/8 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Evrensel, Ayse Y., 2010. "Corruption, growth, and growth volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 501-514, June.
    27. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Suardi, Sandy, 2009. "Macroeconomic Volatility, Trade and Financial Liberalization in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1623-1636, October.
    28. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    29. Bardhan, Pranab & Bowles, Samuel & Gintis, Herbert, 2000. "Wealth inequality, wealth constraints and economic performance," Handbook of Income Distribution, in: A.B. Atkinson & F. Bourguignon (ed.), Handbook of Income Distribution, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 541-603, Elsevier.
    30. Joël Cariolle & Michaël Goujon, 2015. "Measuring Macroeconomic Instability: A Critical Survey Illustrated With Exports Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 1-26, February.
    31. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 964-990, September.
    32. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "Caught in a trap. Identifying the least developed countries," Post-Print hal-00436331, HAL.
    33. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
    34. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    35. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-W21, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    36. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2005. "Unbundling Institutions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 949-995, October.
    37. Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2020. "The effect of corruption on stock market volatility," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(2), pages 1-6.
    38. Ang, James B., 2011. "Finance and consumption volatility: Evidence from India," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 947-964, October.
    39. Alan Finkelstein Shapiro & Andres Gonzalez, 2015. "Macroprudential Policy and Labor Market Dynamics in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2015/078, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "Financial development and the instability of open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1077-1106, September.
    41. Balavac, Merima & Pugh, Geoff, 2016. "The link between trade openness, export diversification, institutions and output volatility in transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 273-287.
    42. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1985. "Credit Markets and the Control of Capital," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 133-152, May.
    43. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.
    44. Kangni Kpodar & Maëlan Le Goff & Raju Jan Singh, 2019. "Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks and Growth in Low-Income Countries," Working papers 719, Banque de France.
    45. Yeh, Chih-Chuan & Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Lin, Pei-Chien, 2013. "Financial structure on growth and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 391-400.
    46. Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, 2016. "Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development," IMF Working Papers 2016/005, International Monetary Fund.
    47. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    48. Andrés Fernández & César E. Tamayo, 2017. "From Institutions To Financial Development And Growth: What Are The Links?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 17-57, February.
    49. Nabil Alimi & Nabil Aflouk, 2017. "Terms-of-trade shocks and macroeconomic volatility in developing countries: panel smooth transition regression models," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 534-551, July.
    50. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Zingales, Luigi, 2003. "The great reversals: the politics of financial development in the twentieth century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-50, July.
    51. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Mr. Adolfo Barajas & Ms. Diana B Ayala Pena & Ran Bi & Miss Yuan Gao & Ms. Annette J Kyobe & Lam Nguyen & Christian Saborowski & Katsiaryna Sv, 2015. "Rethinking Financial Deepening: Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/008, International Monetary Fund.
    52. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    53. Allen C. Head, 1995. "Country Size, Aggregate Fluctuations, and International Risk Sharing," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(4b), pages 1096-1119, November.
    54. Karras, Georgios, 2006. "Trade Openness, Economic Size, and Macroeconomic Volatility: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 254-272.
    55. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2005. "Democracy, Volatility, and Economic Development," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 348-361, May.
    56. Huang, Yongfu, 2010. "Political Institutions and Financial Development: An Empirical Study," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 1667-1677, December.
    57. Townsend, Robert M, 1982. "Optimal Multiperiod Contracts and the Gain from Enduring Relationships under Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1166-1186, December.
    58. Yano, Go & Shiraishi, Maho, 2020. "Finance, institutions, and innovation activities in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    59. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    60. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Narapong Srivisal, 2013. "Revisiting the Link Between Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 2013/029, International Monetary Fund.
    61. Désiré Avom & Brice Kamguia & Henri Njangang, 2021. "Understand growth episodes in Sub-Saharan Africa: Do exogenous shocks matters?," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 596-624, May.
    62. Ratna Sahay & Martin Cihak & Papa M N'Diaye & Adolfo Barajas & Diana B Ayala Pena & Ran Bi & Yuan Gao & Annette J Kyobe & Lam Nguyen & Christian Saborowski & Katsiaryna Svirydzenka & Seyed Reza Yousef, 2015. "Rethinking Financial Deepening; Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/08, International Monetary Fund.
    63. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nchofoung, Tii N., 2022. "Trade shocks and labour market resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the franc zone response differently?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 161-174.
    2. Mougnol A Ekoula, Hervé William & Kamguia, Brice & Ndoya, Hermann, 2023. "Do women hold the key to financial sector development in Africa?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 233-248.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xue, Wen-Jun, 2020. "Financial sector development and growth volatility: An international study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 67-88.
    2. M. Tariq Majeed & Ayesha Noreen, 2018. "Financial Development and Output Volatility: A Cross-Sectional Panel Data Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 97-141, Jan-June.
    3. Markus Eller & Jarko Fidrmuc & Zuzana Fungáčová, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Regional Output Volatility: Evidence from Russia," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1849-1862, November.
    4. Mario Holzner & Stefan Jestl & David Pichler, 2022. "Public and private pension systems and macroeconomic volatility in OECD countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 131-168, May.
    5. Mougnol A Ekoula, Hervé William & Kamguia, Brice & Ndoya, Hermann, 2023. "Do women hold the key to financial sector development in Africa?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 233-248.
    6. Markus Eller & Jarko Fidrmuc & Zuzana Fungáčová, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Regional Output Volatility: Evidence from Russia," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1849-1862, November.
    7. de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira & Roquete, Raphael Moses & Gawryszewski, Gustavo, 2023. "Who needs cash? Digital finance and income inequality," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 84-93.
    8. Miletkov, Mihail & Wintoki, M. Babajide, 2012. "Financial development and the evolution of property rights and legal institutions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 650-673.
    9. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Narapong Srivisal, 2013. "Revisiting the Link Between Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 2013/029, International Monetary Fund.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Feng Wei & Yu Kong, 2016. "Financial Development, Financial Structure, and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-20, November.
    12. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2022. "Financial development and tax revenue in developing countries: investigating the international trade channel," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, January.
    13. Dombi, Ákos & Grigoriadis, Theocharis, 2020. "State history and the finance-growth nexus: Evidence from transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    14. Cavallo, Alberto F. & Cavallo, Eduardo A., 2010. "Are crises good for long-term growth? The role of political institutions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 838-857, September.
    15. Désiré Avom & Brice Kamguia & Joseph Pasky Ngameni, 2021. "Does volatility hinder economic complexity?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1187-1202.
    16. Simon Sturn & Klara Zwickl, 2016. "A reassessment of intermediation and size effects of financial systems," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1467-1480, June.
    17. Alali, Walid Y., 2010. "Impact of Institutions and Policy on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence," MPRA Paper 115610, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Joyce Hsieh & Shu-Chin Lin, 2021. "Financial liberalization, political institutions, and income inequality," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1245-1281, March.
    19. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.
    20. Boukhatem, Jamel, 2016. "Assessing the direct effect of financial development on poverty reduction in a panel of low- and middle-income countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 214-230.
    21. Max Kohler & Stefan Sperlich & Jisu Yoon, 2019. "A Varying Coefficient Model for Assessing the Returns to Growth to Account for Poverty and Inequality," Papers 1903.02390, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terms of trade volatility; Growth volatility; Financial institutions; Financial markets; Institutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:168:y:2021:i:c:p:98-114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/21107017 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.