Imports as a cause of injury: The case of the U.S. steel industry
AbstractRecently, the United States International Trade Commission conducted a Section 201 or "escape clause" hearing to determine whether imports have been the most significant cause of injury to the U.S. steel industry. This paper suggests a methodology for conducting the necessary analysis for such determinations, and applies it to the case of the steel industry. First, a reduced-form equation for steel industry employment is derived and estimated. The equation specifies industry employment as a function of the price of imported steel, the price of energy, the price of iron ore, a time trend, real income and (in one variant) the wage rate in the steel industry. The estimated coefficients are used to perform counter factual simulations, which allow us to attribute changes in industry employment to their proximate causes. The analysis reveals that for the period from 1976 to 1983, a secular shift away from employment in the steel industry has been the most important cause of injury. For the shorter period from 1979 to 1983, secular shift and import competition are roughly equal in importance, with the latter being entirely the result of the substantial appreciation of the U.S. dollar during this period.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.
Volume (Year): 20 (1986)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (May)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552
Other versions of this item:
- Gene M. Grossman, 1984. "Imports as a Cause of Injury: The Case of the U.S. Steel Industry," NBER Working Papers 1494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gene M. Grossman, 1982. "The Employment and Wage Effects of Import Competition in the United States," NBER Working Papers 1041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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