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Attacking a nuclear facility: The impact of a noisy intelligence with unknown quality

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  • Ma, Siyu
  • Biran, Dov

Abstract

This note stems from Jelnov et al. (2017), which analyzed the interaction of two enemy nations– Player 1 (the weak nation) and Player 2 (the strong nation). 1 (he) wishes to develop a nuclear bomb, and 2 (she) who employs a noisy intelligence system, IS, aims to deter him. Based on the signal sent by IS, 2 decides whether to attack 1. If the precision (α) of IS is commonly known, not only 2 is strictly better off with a better quality (higher precision) IS but also is 1. In contrast, this note shows that if α is 2's private information, 1 is not necessarily better off from a more accurate IS, and 2 is only weakly better off. Moreover, the equilibrium outcome depends on 1's estimate of IS's precision (E(α)). A greater estimated precision leads to less aggressive behaviors of both players, thereby reducing the chance of a conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Siyu & Biran, Dov, 2023. "Attacking a nuclear facility: The impact of a noisy intelligence with unknown quality," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 472-483.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:141:y:2023:i:c:p:472-483
    DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2023.07.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jelnov, Artyom & Tauman, Yair & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2018. "Confronting an enemy with unknown preferences: Deterrer or provocateur?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 124-143.
    2. O'Neill, Barry, 1994. "Game theory models of peace and war," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, in: R.J. Aumann & S. Hart (ed.), Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 29, pages 995-1053, Elsevier.
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    4. Debs, Alexandre & Monteiro, Nuno P., 2014. "Known Unknowns: Power Shifts, Uncertainty, and War," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 1-31, January.
    5. Jelnov, Artyom & Tauman, Yair & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2017. "Attacking the unknown weapons of a potential bomb builder: The impact of intelligence on the strategic interaction," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 177-189.
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