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Wildfire crime, apprehension and social vulnerability in Italy

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  • Canepa, Alessandra
  • Drogo, Federico

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the socio-economic determinants of wildfire crime in Italy through panel data at the regional level. The first aim of the paper is to evaluate whether socioeconomic variables suggested by crime theory are linked to wildfire crime in Italy. Using Poisson-type models it is found that social vulnerability factors such as poverty and unemployment play an important role in driving wildfire crime. Organised crime is also found to be a significant factor explaining wildfire crime. A second aim of the paper is to investigate the effect of deterrence factors as fire prevention tools. Using regional data about forest fires charges we investigate the effect of apprehension at different levels of the law enforcement process. Namely, we compute proxies for the probability of standing trial once apprehended, the probability of being successfully identified as offender, and finally the probability of being convicted for wildfire crime. Our results provide evidence that law enforcement efforts are negatively related to the occurrence of wildfire crime.

Suggested Citation

  • Canepa, Alessandra & Drogo, Federico, 2021. "Wildfire crime, apprehension and social vulnerability in Italy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:122:y:2021:i:c:s1389934120306560
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102330
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wildfire crime; Socio-economic factors; Poisson models; Endogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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