IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v50y2022ics1544612322004858.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on market efficiency: Evidence for the developed stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Gaio, Luiz Eduardo
  • Stefanelli, Nelson Oliveira
  • Pimenta, Tabajara
  • Bonacim, Carlos Alberto Grespan
  • Gatsios, Rafael Confetti

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the stock market efficiency of six developed countries. The sample is composed of daily stock index data from the United States (US), United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Market efficiency was analyzed by the multifractal structure of the series of returns in four periods (full series, COVID-19 outbreak, before the conflict and after the conflict). The results show the presence of multifractality of the index's return series in periods of crisis. The evidence rejects the market efficiency hypothesis and indicates the predictability of asset prices in times of instability and global financial crisis. Our findings can help fund managers, institutional investors, and investors in general to make decisions about asset allocation in times of crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaio, Luiz Eduardo & Stefanelli, Nelson Oliveira & Pimenta, Tabajara & Bonacim, Carlos Alberto Grespan & Gatsios, Rafael Confetti, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on market efficiency: Evidence for the developed stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:50:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322004858
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103302
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612322004858
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103302?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qureshi, Anum & Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Ahmad, Ghufran & Ashraf, Dawood, 2022. "Russia–Ukraine war and systemic risk: Who is taking the heat?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    2. Kakinaka, Shinji & Umeno, Ken, 2022. "Cryptocurrency market efficiency in short- and long-term horizons during COVID-19: An asymmetric multifractal analysis approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    3. Boungou, Whelsy & Yatié, Alhonita, 2022. "The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    4. Mensi, Walid & Sensoy, Ahmet & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on asymmetric multifractality of gold and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Okorie, David Iheke & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Adaptive market hypothesis: The story of the stock markets and COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W. & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of wars on global equity markets: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    7. Cajueiro, Daniel O & Tabak, Benjamin M, 2004. "The Hurst exponent over time: testing the assertion that emerging markets are becoming more efficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(3), pages 521-537.
    8. Ozkan, Oktay, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on stock market efficiency: Evidence from developed countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Tosun, Onur Kemal & Eshraghi, Arman, 2022. "Corporate decisions in times of war: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    10. Umar, Zaghum & Polat, Onur & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the connectedness of financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    11. Frezza, Massimiliano & Bianchi, Sergio & Pianese, Augusto, 2021. "Fractal analysis of market (in)efficiency during the COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    12. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    13. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2021. "Analysis of stock market efficiency during crisis periods in the US stock market: Differences between the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Wei & Chen, Xiao & Zhang, Jihong, 2023. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the automotive energy transition: Empirical evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    2. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Asl, Mahdi Ghaemi & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Izadi, Parviz, 2023. "Multifractality and cross-correlation between the crude oil and the European and non-European stock markets during the Russia-Ukraine war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Nasim, Asma & Downing, Gareth, 2023. "Energy shocks and bank performance in the advanced economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Umar, Muhammad & Riaz, Yasir & Yousaf, Imran, 2022. "Impact of Russian-Ukraine war on clean energy, conventional energy, and metal markets: Evidence from event study approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Hassan, M Kabir & Boubaker, Sabri & Kumari, Vineeta & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2022. "Border disputes and heterogeneous sectoral returns: An event study approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Choi, Sun-Yong & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Are short stocks susceptible to geopolitical shocks? Time-Frequency evidence from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Kumari, Vineeta & Kumar, Gaurav & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2023. "Are the European Union stock markets vulnerable to the Russia–Ukraine war?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    6. Deniz Erer & Elif Erer & Selim Güngör, 2023. "The aggregate and sectoral time-varying market efficiency during crisis periods in Turkey: a comparative analysis with COVID-19 outbreak and the global financial crisis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    7. Furdui Călin & Șfabu Dorina Teodora, 2023. "The European Banks Under the Shock of the Russian Invasion of 2022: An Event Study Approach," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 68(1), pages 62-77, April.
    8. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Kamal, Md Rajib & Ahmed, Shaker & Hasan, Mostafa Monzur, 2023. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the stock market: Evidence from Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Espinosa-Paredes, G. & Rodriguez, E. & Alvarez-Ramirez, J., 2022. "A singular value decomposition entropy approach to assess the impact of Covid-19 on the informational efficiency of the WTI crude oil market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    11. Wu, Feng-lin & Zhan, Xu-dong & Zhou, Jia-qi & Wang, Ming-hui, 2023. "Stock market volatility and Russia–Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    12. Polyzos, Efstathios & Wang, Fang, 2022. "Twitter and market efficiency in energy markets: Evidence using LDA clustered topic extraction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    13. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Richard Barichello, 2023. "The shock of war: do trade relations impact the reaction of stock markets to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 1, pages 14-27.
    14. Liu, Wei & Chen, Xiao & Zhang, Jihong, 2023. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the automotive energy transition: Empirical evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    15. Alshater, Muneer M. & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & El Khoury, Rim, 2023. "Dynamic asymmetric connectedness in technological sectors," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    16. Nerlinger, Martin & Utz, Sebastian, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on energy firms: A capital market perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    17. Kwaku Boafo Baidoo, 2022. "Time-Varying Effect of Short Selling on Market Volatility During Crisis: Evidence from COVID-19 and War in Ukraine," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 233-243.
    18. Andrew Phiri, 2022. "Changing efficiency of BRICS currency markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1673-1699, August.
    19. Singh, Amanjot & Patel, Ritesh & Singh, Harminder, 2022. "Recalibration of priorities: Investor preference and Russia-Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    20. Jacek Karasinski, 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Weak-Form Informational Efficiency of the Warsaw Stock Exchange (Wplyw wybuchu epidemii COVID-19 na efektywnosc informacyjna Gieldy Papierow Wartosciowych w ," Research Reports, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(37), pages 15-28.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Efficiency market; Russian-Ukraine conflict; Hurst exponent;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:50:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322004858. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.