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The business cycles driven by loan defaults via credit creation: An agent-based perspective

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  • Yu, Miao
  • Feng, Zijian
  • Wang, Yougui

Abstract

This paper presents an agent-based model consisting of multiple households, multiple firms, one commercial bank and one central bank, with the aim of demonstrating loan defaults drive business cycles via credit creation. The simulations show us explicit patterns of cycles for some key variables and possible underlying mechanisms are proposed. We construct a SVAR model on the simulation data, and the impulse response results, which are testified to be robust, provide some explanations of the possible causality chains. Our work facilitates the understandings about the procyclicality of bank capital as well as the bank capital channel of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Miao & Feng, Zijian & Wang, Yougui, 2022. "The business cycles driven by loan defaults via credit creation: An agent-based perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:48:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322001404
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.102846
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xing, Xiaoyun & Xiong, Wanting & Chen, Liujun & Chen, Jiawei & Wang, Yougui & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2018. "Money circulation and debt circulation: A restatement of quantity theory of money," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Matthew Baron & Emil Verner & Wei Xiong, 2021. "Banking Crises Without Panics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(1), pages 51-113.
    3. Xiong, Wanting & Li, Boyao & Wang, Yougui & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2020. "The versatility of money multiplier under Basel III regulations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
    5. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1982. "The Changing Roles of Debt and Equity in Financing U.S. Capital Formation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie82-1, March.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    7. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October.
    8. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1994. "Do Risk-Based Capital Allocate Bank Credit and Cause a "Credit Crunch"' in the United States?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 585-628, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xing, Xiaoyun & Pan, Huanxue & Deng, Jing, 2022. "Carbon tax in a stock-flow consistent model: The role of commercial banks in financing low-carbon transition," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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