IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v46y2022ipbs154461232100444x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Terrorism, investor sentiment, and stock market reaction: Evidence from the British and the French markets

Author

Listed:
  • Arfaoui, Nadia
  • Naoui, Kamel

Abstract

We examine whether and how terrorist attacks influence the British and the French stock markets through investor sentiment. Using a quantile regression approach, our results indicate that terrorist attacks have adverse effects on the British and the French stock market returns under extreme market conditions. In terms of volatility, surprisingly, we find that these exogenous events decrease the volatility of the British (French) stock market under different market conditions (around the median and at the extreme top quantile). We also document a sizeable contribution of investor sentiment in explaining the effects of major terrorist attacks on the two European stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Arfaoui, Nadia & Naoui, Kamel, 2022. "Terrorism, investor sentiment, and stock market reaction: Evidence from the British and the French markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:46:y:2022:i:pb:s154461232100444x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102462
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S154461232100444X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102462?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2010. "Terrorism activity, investor sentiment, and stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 128-135, August.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Terror attacks and stock-market fluctuations: evidence based on a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test for the G7 countries," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 333-346, March.
    3. Apergis, Emmanuel & Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "The 11/13 Paris terrorist attacks and stock prices: The case of the international defense industry," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 186-192.
    4. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    5. Hechem Ajmi & Nadia Arfaoui, 2020. "Effects of the political risk on Bitcoin return and volatility: evidence from the 2016 US presidential election," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(1), pages 94-115, August.
    6. El Ouadghiri, Imane & Peillex, Jonathan, 2018. "Public attention to “Islamic terrorism” and stock market returns," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 936-946.
    7. Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Stagiannis, Apostolos, 2011. "Terrorism and capital markets: The effects of the Madrid and London bomb attacks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 532-541, October.
    8. Kolaric, S. & Schiereck, D., 2016. "Are stock markets efficient in the face of fear? Evidence from the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 80721, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    9. Yang, Chunpeng & Zhou, Liyun, 2015. "Investor trading behavior, investor sentiment and asset prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 42-62.
    10. Kolaric, Sascha & Schiereck, Dirk, 2016. "Are stock markets efficient in the face of fear? Evidence from the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 306-310.
    11. Eckstein, Zvi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2004. "Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 971-1002, July.
    12. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    13. Arin, K. Peren & Ciferri, Davide & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2008. "The price of terror: The effects of terrorism on stock market returns and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 164-167, December.
    14. Park, Jin Suk & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2018. "Do terrorist attacks harm financial markets? A meta-analysis of event studies and the determinants of adverse impact," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 227-247.
    15. Kurov, Alexander, 2010. "Investor sentiment and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 139-149, January.
    16. Chesney, Marc & Reshetar, Ganna & Karaman, Mustafa, 2011. "The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 253-267, February.
    17. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn & Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2016. "Does investor sentiment really matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 221-232.
    18. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
    19. Mark T. Hon & Jack Strauss & Soo‐Keong Yong, 2004. "Contagion in financial markets after September 11: myth or reality?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 95-114, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Irshad Hira & Taib Hasniza Mohd & Hussain Haroon & Hussain Rana Yassir, 2023. "Conventional and Islamic Equity Market Reaction Towards Terrorism: Evidence Based on Target Types, Location and Islamic Calendar Months," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 33(4), pages 70-116, December.
    2. Dong, Xiyong & Xiong, Youlin & Nie, Siyue & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2023. "Can bonds hedge stock market risks? Green bonds vs conventional bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Zhou, Haonan & Lu, Xinjie, 2023. "Investor attention on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and stock market volatility: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee & Pierdzioch, Christian & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Do terror attacks predict gold returns? Evidence from a quantile-predictive-regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 276-284.
    2. Park, Jin Suk & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2018. "Do terrorist attacks harm financial markets? A meta-analysis of event studies and the determinants of adverse impact," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 227-247.
    3. Fatma Ben Moussa & Mariem Talbi, 2019. "Stock Market Reaction to Terrorist Attacks and Political Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Tunisian Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 48-64.
    4. Mnasri, Ayman & Nechi, Salem, 2016. "Impact of terrorist attacks on stock market volatility in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 184-202.
    5. Gok, Ibrahim Yasar & Demirdogen, Yavuz & Topuz, Sefa, 2020. "The impacts of terrorism on Turkish equity market: An investigation using intraday data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    6. Kollias Christos & Papadamou Stephanos & Psarianos Iacovos, 2014. "Rogue State Behavior and Markets: the Financial Fallout of North Korean Nuclear Tests," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-26, April.
    7. Corbet, Shaen & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Meegan, Andrew, 2018. "Long-term stock market volatility and the influence of terrorist attacks in Europe," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 118-131.
    8. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Morelli, David & Uzan, Paola Sultana Renée, 2021. "Striking the implied volatility of US drone companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Nicholas Apergis & Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2016. "Does Geopolitical Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility of Leading Defense Companies? Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach," Working Papers 201671, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2019. "The Financial Costs of Terror: Evidence from Berlin and Munich Attacks," Post-Print hal-02108636, HAL.
    11. Jamal Bouoiyour, Refk Selmi, 2021. "The financial costs of terrorism: evidence from Germany," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 18(1), pages 87-104, June.
    12. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Rogowicz, Karol & Kurowski, Łukasz & Smaga, Paweł, 2021. "Two decades of contagion effect on stock markets: Which events are more contagious?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    13. Imtiaz Arif & Tahir Suleman, 2017. "Terrorism and Stock Market Linkages: An Empirical Study from a Front-line State," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 365-378, April.
    14. Kollias, Christos & Kyrtsou, Catherine & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 743-752.
    15. Irshad Hira & Taib Hasniza Mohd & Hussain Haroon & Hussain Rana Yassir, 2023. "Conventional and Islamic Equity Market Reaction Towards Terrorism: Evidence Based on Target Types, Location and Islamic Calendar Months," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 33(4), pages 70-116, December.
    16. Chaudhry, Naukhaiz & Roubaud, David & Akhter, Waheed & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Impact of terrorism on stock markets: Empirical evidence from the SAARC region," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 230-234.
    17. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    18. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 295-306.
    19. Arif, Imtiaz & Suleman, Tahir, 2014. "Terrorism and Stock Market Linkages: An Empirical Study from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 58918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Does Terrorism Affect the Stock‐Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism; Investor sentiment; Stock market; Quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:46:y:2022:i:pb:s154461232100444x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.