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Modeling hourly electricity dynamics for policy making in long-term scenarios

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  • Pina, André
  • Silva, Carlos
  • Ferrão, Paulo
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    Abstract

    Energy policies are often related to the global effort in reducing greenhouse gas emissions through increased use of renewable energies in electricity production. The impact of these policies is usually calculated by energy planning tools. However, the modeling methodologies most currently used are not adequate to simulate long-term scenarios while considering the hourly dynamics of supply and demand. This paper presents an extension of the TIMES energy planning tool for investment decisions in electricity production that considers seasonal, daily and hourly supply and demand dynamics. The inclusion of these dynamics enables the model to produce more accurate results in what concerns the impact of introducing energy efficiency policies and the increased use of renewable energies. The model was validated in São Miguel (Azores, Portugal) for the years 2006-2009, where a comparison with real data showed that the model can simulate the supply and demand dynamics. Further, the long-term analysis shows that the inclusion of these dynamics contributes to a better assessment of the renewable energy potential, suggests the postponement of investments in new generation capacity, and demonstrates that using fine time resolution modeling is very valuable for the design of effective policy measures under high renewable penetration energy systems.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 9 (September)
    Pages: 4692-4702

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:4692-4702

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    Keywords: Energy Systems Planning Renewable resources dynamics TIMES;

    References

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    1. Blesl, Markus & Das, Anjana & Fahl, Ulrich & Remme, Uwe, 2007. "Role of energy efficiency standards in reducing CO2 emissions in Germany: An assessment with TIMES," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 772-785, February.
    2. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Labriet, Maryse & Loulou, Richard & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2008. "The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2296-2307, July.
    3. Rout, Ullash K. & Fahl, Ulrich & Remme, Uwe & Blesl, Markus & Voß, Alfred, 2009. "Endogenous implementation of technology gap in energy optimization models--a systematic analysis within TIMES G5 model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2814-2830, July.
    4. Ang, B.W. & Ng, T.T., 1992. "The use of growth curves in energy studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 25-36.
    5. Simões, Sofia & Cleto, João & Fortes, Patri­cia & Seixas, Júlia & Huppes, Gjalt, 2008. "Cost of energy and environmental policy in Portuguese CO2 abatement--scenario analysis to 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3598-3611, September.
    6. Möst, Dominik & Fichtner, Wolf, 2010. "Renewable energy sources in European energy supply and interactions with emission trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2898-2910, June.
    7. Richard Loulou & Maryse Labriet, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 7-40, February.
    8. Howells, M. I. & Alfstad, T. & Victor, D. G. & Goldstein, G. & Remme, U., 2005. "A model of household energy services in a low-income rural African village," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(14), pages 1833-1851, September.
    9. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2010. "A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(4), pages 1059-1082, April.
    10. Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2009. "Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy systems—The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 524-531.
    11. Richard Loulou, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. part II: mathematical formulation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. John Foster & William Paul Bell & Craig Froome & Phil Wild & Liam Wagner & Deepak Sharma & Suwin Sandu & Suchi Misra & Ravindra Bagia, 2012. "Institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 7-2012, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    2. John Foster & William Paul Bell & Phil Wild & Deepak Sharma & Suwin Sandu & Craig Froome & Liam Wagner & Suchi Misra & Ravindra Bagia, 2013. "Analysis of institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 6-2013, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    3. Pina, André & Baptista, Patrícia & Silva, Carlos & Ferrão, Paulo, 2014. "Energy reduction potential from the shift to electric vehicles: The Flores island case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 37-47.

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