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Carbon value dynamics for France: A key driver to support mitigation pledges at country scale

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  • Assoumou, Edi
  • Maïzi, Nadia
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    Abstract

    The climate agenda in France and several other countries is a complex combination of unilateral commitments with regional and international objectives. When analyzing national policies, the findings of worldwide analyses are of limited accuracy and the large aggregates on which they are built level out most local specificities and inertia. Specific assessments are hence needed. This paper quantifies the dynamic evolution of carbon values for French climate and energy policy. Its time dependency over successive periods and the effects of setting intermediate targets are evaluated using a long-term optimization model. Addressing critical issues for France, we produce consistent energy, emissions and carbon value estimates with a 5-year time step. Our results are situated above the upper range of carbon value estimates of world models with an overlapping zone. We show that the official policy guideline value is only consistent with an optimistic combination of assumptions. The central estimates are 4 times greater than the guideline carbon value for 2050 and up to 14 times greater in 2020 because of short-term inertia that are costly to move. We also find that with intermediate objectives, the carbon value's dynamic is more than a simple upward curve and that its variability is itself time dependent.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511003338
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 7 (July)
    Pages: 4325-4336

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:7:p:4325-4336

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Long-term planning Carbon value MARKAL-TIMES models;

    References

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    1. David Pearce, 2003. "The Social Cost of Carbon and its Policy Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 362-384.
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    3. Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Trends, Outliers and Catastrophes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(25), pages 1-22.
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    9. Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
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    11. Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
    12. Onno J. Kuik & Barbara Bucher & Michela Catenacci & Etem Karakaya & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "Methodological aspects of recent climate change damage cost studies," Working Papers FNU-122, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2006.
    13. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
    14. Kuik, Onno & Brander, Luke & Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: A meta-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1395-1403, April.
    15. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2008. "European CO2 prices and carbon capture investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2992-3015, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Lavigne, Denis & Rout, Ullash K. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2013. "Modelling the impacts of challenging 2020 non-ETS GHG emissions reduction targets on Ireland′s energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1438-1452.

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