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Energy demand and carbon emissions under different development scenarios for Shanghai, China

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  • Li, Li
  • Chen, Changhong
  • Xie, Shichen
  • Huang, Cheng
  • Cheng, Zhen
  • Wang, Hongli
  • Wang, Yangjun
  • Huang, Haiying
  • Lu, Jun
  • Dhakal, Shobhakar
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    Abstract

    In this paper, Shanghai's CO2 emissions from 1995 to 2006 were estimated following the IPCC guidelines. The energy demand and CO2 emissions were also projected until 2020, and the CO2 mitigation potential of the planned government policies and measures that are not yet implemented but will be enacted or adopted by the end of 2020 in Shanghai were estimated. The results show that Shanghai's total CO2 emissions in 2006 were 184 million tons of CO2. During 1995-2006, the annual growth rate of CO2 emissions in Shanghai was 6.22%. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, total energy demand in Shanghai will rise to 300 million tons of coal equivalent in 2020, which is 3.91 times that of 2005. Total CO2 emissions in 2010 and 2020 will reach 290 and 630 million tons, respectively, under the BAU scenario. Under a basic-policy (BP) scenario, total energy demand in Shanghai will be 160 million tons of coal equivalent in 2020, which is 2.06 times that of 2005. Total CO2 emissions in 2010 and 2020 in Shanghai will be 210 and 330 million tons, respectively, 28% and 48% lower than those of the business-as-usual scenario. The results show that the currently planned energy conservation policies for the future, represented by the basic-policy scenario, have a large CO2 mitigation potential for Shanghai.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 9 (September)
    Pages: 4797-4807

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:9:p:4797-4807

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Energy saving Carbon dioxide emission Shanghai;

    References

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    1. Changhong, Chen & Bingyan, Wang & Qingyan, Fu & Green, Collin & Streets, David G., 2006. "Reductions in emissions of local air pollutants and co-benefits of Chinese energy policy: a Shanghai case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 754-762, April.
    2. Kadian, Rashmi & Dahiya, R.P. & Garg, H.P., 2007. "Energy-related emissions and mitigation opportunities from the household sector in Delhi," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6195-6211, December.
    3. Gnansounou, Edgard & Dong, Jun & Bedniaguine, Denis, 2004. "The strategic technology options for mitigating CO2 emissions in power sector: assessment of Shanghai electricity-generating system," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1-2), pages 117-133, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Bi, Jun & Zhang, Rongrong & Wang, Haikun & Liu, Miaomiao & Wu, Yi, 2011. "The benchmarks of carbon emissions and policy implications for China's cities: Case of Nanjing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4785-4794, September.
    2. Geng, Yuhuan & Tian, Mingzhong & Zhu, Qiuan & Zhang, Jianjun & Peng, Changhui, 2011. "Quantification of provincial-level carbon emissions from energy consumption in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 3658-3668.
    3. Shao, Shuai & Yang, Lili & Yu, Mingbo & Yu, Mingliang, 2011. "Estimation, characteristics, and determinants of energy-related industrial CO2 emissions in Shanghai (China), 1994-2009," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6476-6494, October.
    4. Lin, Boqiang & Moubarak, Mohamed, 2014. "Mitigation potential of carbon dioxide emissions in the Chinese textile industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 781-787.
    5. Yue, Ting & Long, Ruyin & Chen, Hong & Zhao, Xin, 2013. "The optimal CO2 emissions reduction path in Jiangsu province: An expanded IPAT approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1510-1517.
    6. Martins, Fernando Ramos & Pereira, Enio Bueno, 2011. "Enhancing information for solar and wind energy technology deployment in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4378-4390, July.
    7. Cai, Bofeng & Zhang, Lixiao, 2014. "Urban CO2 emissions in China: Spatial boundary and performance comparison," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 557-567.

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