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Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

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  • Wang, Tao
  • Watson, Jim
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    Abstract

    China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 7 (July)
    Pages: 3537-3546

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:7:p:3537-3546

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    Keywords: Scenario analysis Low carbon transition Cumulative emissions;

    References

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    1. Zhang, Ming & Mu, Hailin & Ning, Yadong, 2009. "Accounting for energy-related CO2 emission in China, 1991-2006," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 767-773, March.
    2. Anderson, Kevin & Bows, Alice & Mander, Sarah, 2008. "From long-term targets to cumulative emission pathways: Reframing UK climate policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3714-3722, October.
    3. Andrews-Speed, Philip, 2009. "China's ongoing energy efficiency drive: Origins, progress and prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1331-1344, April.
    4. Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Ying & Lu, Xuedu, 2008. "Comparison of CO2 emission scenarios and mitigation opportunities in China's five sectors in 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1181-1194, March.
    5. Larson, Eric D. & Zongxin, Wu & DeLaquil, Pat & Wenying, Chen & Pengfei, Gao, 2003. "Future implications of China's energy-technology choices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 1189-1204, September.
    6. Chen, Wenying, 2005. "The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 885-896, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Wang, Nannan & Chang, Yen-Chiang, 2014. "The development of policy instruments in supporting low-carbon governance in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 126-135.
    2. Yue, Ting & Long, Ruyin & Chen, Hong & Zhao, Xin, 2013. "The optimal CO2 emissions reduction path in Jiangsu province: An expanded IPAT approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1510-1517.
    3. Meng, Lei & Guo, Ju'e & Chai, Jian & Zhang, Zengkai, 2011. "China's regional CO2 emissions: Characteristics, inter-regional transfer and emission reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6136-6144, October.
    4. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zheng & Zhao, Changhong & Xiong, Minpeng & Guo, Jingsheng, 2014. "Peak energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 508-523.

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