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Assessment of demand for natural gas from the electricity sector in India

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  • Shukla, P.R.
  • Dhar, Subash
  • Victor, David G.
  • Jackson, Mike
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    Abstract

    Electricity sector is among the key users of natural gas. The sustained electricity deficit and environment policies have added to an already rising demand for gas. This paper tries to understand gas demand in future from electricity sector. This paper models the future demand for gas in India from the electricity sector under alternative scenarios for the period 2005-2025, using bottom-up ANSWER MARKAL model. The scenarios are differentiated by alternate economic growth projections and policies related to coal reforms, infrastructure choices and local environment. The results across scenarios show that gas competes with coal as a base-load option if price difference is below US $ 4 per MBtu. At higher price difference gas penetrates only the peak power market. Gas demand is lower in the high economic growth scenario, since electricity sector is more flexible in substitution of primary energy. Gas demand reduces also in cases when coal supply curve shifts rightwards such as under coal reforms and coal-by-wire scenarios. Local environmental (SO2 emissions) control promotes end of pipe solutions flue gas de-sulfurisation (FGD) initially, though in the longer term mitigation happens by fuel substitution (coal by gas) and introduction of clean coal technologies integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC).

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 9 (September)
    Pages: 3520-3534

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:9:p:3520-3534

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Gas market Electricity Energy modeling;

    References

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    1. Kerr, Suzi & Newell, Richard, 2001. "Policy-Induced Technology Adoption: Evidence from the U.S. Lead Phasedown," Discussion Papers dp-01-14, Resources For the Future.
    2. P.R. Shukla & Tirthankar Nag & Debashish Biswas, 2005. "Electricity reforms and firm level responses: changing ownership, fuel choices, and technology decisions," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 23(2/3), pages 260-279.
    3. Chikkatur, Ananth P. & Sagar, Ambuj D. & Abhyankar, Nikit & Sreekumar, N., 2007. "Tariff-based incentives for improving coal-power-plant efficiencies in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 3744-3758, July.
    4. Guillaume L'Hegaret & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2004. "International Market Integration for Natural Gas? A Cointegration Analysis of Prices in Europe, North America and Japan," Working Papers 0402, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    5. Amit Garg & P.R. Shukla & Debyani Ghosh & Manmohan Kapshe & Nair Rajesh, 2003. "Future Greenhouse Gas and Local Pollutant Emissions for India: Policy Links and Disjoints," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 71-92, March.
    6. Banerjee, Rangan, 1998. "Load management in the Indian power sector using US experience," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 23(11), pages 961-972.
    7. Pandian, S., 2005. "The political economy of trans-Pakistan gas pipeline project: assessing the political and economic risks for India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 659-670, March.
    8. Richard Schmalensee & Paul L. Joskow & A. Denny Ellerman & Juan Pablo Montero & Elizabeth M. Bailey, 1998. "An Interim Evaluation of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Trading," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 53-68, Summer.
    9. Robert N. Stavins, 1998. "What Can We Learn from the Grand Policy Experiment? Lessons from SO2 Allowance Trading," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 69-88, Summer.
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    Cited by:
    1. Blenkinsopp, T. & Coles, S.R & Kirwan, K., 2013. "Renewable energy for rural communities in Maharashtra, India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 192-199.
    2. Pasimeni, Maria Rita & Petrosillo, Irene & Aretano, Roberta & Semeraro, Teodoro & De Marco, Antonella & Zaccarelli, Nicola & Zurlini, Giovanni, 2014. "Scales, strategies and actions for effective energy planning: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 165-174.
    3. Kani, Alireza H. & Abbasspour, Madjid & Abedi, Zahra, 2014. "Estimation of demand function for natural gas in Iran: Evidences based on smooth transition regression models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 341-347.
    4. Eto, R. & Murata, A. & Uchiyama, Y. & Okajima, K., 2013. "Co-benefits of including CCS projects in the CDM in India's power sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 260-268.

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