IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v151y2021ics0301421520308041.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of variable renewable energy technologies on electricity markets: An analysis of the Turkish balancing market

Author

Listed:
  • Sirin, Selahattin Murat
  • Yilmaz, Berna N.

Abstract

As global investment in renewable energy technologies continue to trend upward, the effects of variable (intermittent) renewable energy technologies on power markets have created serious challenges for regulators and policymakers. The literature on the effects of these technologies on day-ahead markets has been well established; however, further research is required on intra-day and real-time (balancing) markets to understand how these technologies are changing electricity market dynamics. In this respect, this study aims to assess the effects of the variable renewable energy technologies (wind and run-of-river hydro) on Turkish balancing market prices using quantile regression. In addition, ordered logistic regression is used to evaluate how system imbalances are changing as a result of these technologies. Model results show that system marginal price declines as variable renewable energy generation increases. Moreover, there is a higher probability of positive imbalance as the positive difference between real-time and projected variable renewable energy generation increases. Overall, an increase in variable renewable energy generation implies lower prices, but higher positive imbalances for the system. Hence, we recommend that Turkey should revise its current market design to incorporate the geographical and temporal generation characteristics of these technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2021. "The impact of variable renewable energy technologies on electricity markets: An analysis of the Turkish balancing market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:151:y:2021:i:c:s0301421520308041
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112093
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520308041
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112093?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ciarreta, Aitor & Espinosa, Maria Paz & Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina, 2014. "Is green energy expensive? Empirical evidence from the Spanish electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 205-215.
    2. Frondel, Manuel & Ritter, Nolan & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Vance, Colin, 2010. "Economic impacts from the promotion of renewable energy technologies: The German experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4048-4056, August.
    3. Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2008. "Short term forecasting of electricity prices for MISO hubs: Evidence from ARIMA-EGARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3186-3197, November.
    4. Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo & Brinkman, Greg & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2016. "The impact of wind power on electricity prices," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 474-487.
    5. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
    6. Batalla-Bejerano, Joan & Trujillo-Baute, Elisa, 2016. "Impacts of intermittent renewable generation on electricity system costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 411-420.
    7. Daron Acemoglu, Ali Kakhbod, and Asuman Ozdaglar, 2017. "Competition in Electricity Markets with Renewable Energy Sources," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(KAPSARC S).
    8. Würzburg, Klaas & Labandeira, Xavier & Linares, Pedro, 2013. "Renewable generation and electricity prices: Taking stock and new evidence for Germany and Austria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 159-171.
    9. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2020. "Variable renewable energy technologies in the Turkish electricity market: Quantile regression analysis of the merit-order effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Andersson, Jonas & Serletis, Apostolos, 2017. "Electricity prices, large-scale renewable integration, and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 550-560.
    11. Hirth, Lion & Ueckerdt, Falko & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2015. "Integration costs revisited – An economic framework for wind and solar variability," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 925-939.
    12. Frank A. Wolak, 2014. "Regulating Competition in Wholesale Electricity Supply," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Regulation and Its Reform: What Have We Learned?, pages 195-289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/208 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ketterer, Janina C., 2014. "The impact of wind power generation on the electricity price in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-280.
    15. Newbery, David & Pollitt, Michael G. & Ritz, Robert A. & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2018. "Market design for a high-renewables European electricity system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 695-707.
    16. Hache, Emmanuel & Palle, Angélique, 2019. "Renewable energy source integration into power networks, research trends and policy implications: A bibliometric and research actors survey analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 23-35.
    17. Ignacio J. Perez-Arriaga & Carlos Batlle, 2012. "Impacts of Intermittent Renewables on Electricity Generation System Operation," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    18. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Hirth, Lion & Knopf, Brigitte & Pahle, Michael & Schlömer, Steffen & Schmid, Eva & Ueckerdt, Falko, 2013. "On the economics of renewable energy sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 12-23.
    19. Hagfors, Lars Ivar & Bunn, Derek & Kristoffersen, Eline & Staver, Tiril Toftdahl & Westgaard, Sjur, 2016. "Modeling the UK electricity price distributions using quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 231-243.
    20. Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Nursimulu, Anjali, 2019. "Drivers of electricity price dynamics: Comparative analysis of spot and futures markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 76-87.
    21. Camadan, Ercüment & Erten, Ibrahim Etem, 2011. "An evaluation of the transitional Turkish electricity balancing and settlement market: Lessons for the future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 1325-1334, February.
    22. Hu, Jing & Harmsen, Robert & Crijns-Graus, Wina & Worrell, Ernst & van den Broek, Machteld, 2018. "Identifying barriers to large-scale integration of variable renewable electricity into the electricity market: A literature review of market design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2181-2195.
    23. He X. & Zhu L-X., 2003. "A Lack-of-Fit Test for Quantile Regression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 1013-1022, January.
    24. Clò, Stefano & Cataldi, Alessandra & Zoppoli, Pietro, 2015. "The merit-order effect in the Italian power market: The impact of solar and wind generation on national wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 79-88.
    25. Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 764-785.
    26. Jónsson, Tryggvi & Pinson, Pierre & Madsen, Henrik, 2010. "On the market impact of wind energy forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 313-320, March.
    27. van der Veen, Reinier A.C. & Hakvoort, Rudi A., 2016. "The electricity balancing market: Exploring the design challenge," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(PB), pages 186-194.
    28. Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2020. "Assessing the impact of renewable energy sources on the electricity price level and variability – A quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    29. Acar, Berkan & Selcuk, Orhun & Dastan, Seyit Ali, 2019. "The merit order effect of wind and river type hydroelectricity generation on Turkish electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1298-1319.
    30. Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Foster, John & Hewson, Michael, 2017. "Revitalising the wind power induced merit order effect to reduce wholesale and retail electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 224-241.
    31. Vandezande, Leen & Meeus, Leonardo & Belmans, Ronnie & Saguan, Marcelo & Glachant, Jean-Michel, 2010. "Well-functioning balancing markets: A prerequisite for wind power integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3146-3154, July.
    32. Gullì, Francesco & Balbo, Antonio Lo, 2015. "The impact of intermittently renewable energy on Italian wholesale electricity prices: Additional benefits or additional costs?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 123-137.
    33. Bianco, Vincenzo & Driha, Oana M. & Sevilla-Jiménez, Martín, 2019. "Effects of renewables deployment in the Spanish electricity generation sector," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 72-81.
    34. Khoshrou, Abdolrahman & Dorsman, André B. & Pauwels, Eric J., 2019. "The evolution of electricity price on the German day-ahead market before and after the energy switch," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1-13.
    35. Goodarzi, Shadi & Perera, H. Niles & Bunn, Derek, 2019. "The impact of renewable energy forecast errors on imbalance volumes and electricity spot prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    36. Avci-Surucu, Ezgi & Aydogan, A. Kursat & Akgul, Doganbey, 2016. "Bidding structure, market efficiency and persistence in a multi-time tariff setting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 77-87.
    37. Sapio, Alessandro, 2019. "Greener, more integrated, and less volatile? A quantile regression analysis of Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 452-469.
    38. Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Uribe, Jorge M. & Manotas-Duque, Diego Fernando, 2017. "Nonlinear empirical pricing in electricity markets using fundamental weather factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 594-605.
    39. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
    40. Stuart R. Lipsitz & Garrett M. Fitzmaurice & Geert Molenberghs, 1996. "Goodness‐Of‐Fit Tests for Ordinal Response Regression Models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 45(2), pages 175-190, June.
    41. Paraschiv, Florentina & Erni, David & Pietsch, Ralf, 2014. "The impact of renewable energies on EEX day-ahead electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 196-210.
    42. Ballester, Cristina & Furió, Dolores, 2015. "Effects of renewables on the stylized facts of electricity prices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1596-1609.
    43. López Prol, Javier & Steininger, Karl W. & Zilberman, David, 2020. "The cannibalization effect of wind and solar in the California wholesale electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    44. Bueno-Lorenzo, Miriam & Moreno, M. Ángeles & Usaola, Julio, 2013. "Analysis of the imbalance price scheme in the Spanish electricity market: A wind power test case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1010-1019.
    45. Hirth, Lion & Ziegenhagen, Inka, 2015. "Balancing power and variable renewables: Three links," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1035-1051.
    46. Gianfreda, Angelica & Parisio, Lucia & Pelagatti, Matteo, 2018. "A review of balancing costs in Italy before and after RES introduction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 549-563.
    47. Liu, Heping & Shi, Jing, 2013. "Applying ARMA–GARCH approaches to forecasting short-term electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 152-166.
    48. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo, 2008. "The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3076-3084, August.
    49. Lynch & John Curtis, 2016. "The effects of wind generation capacity on electricity prices and generation costs: a Monte Carlo analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 133-151, January.
    50. Ortega-Izquierdo, Margarita & del Río, Pablo, 2016. "Benefits and costs of renewable electricity in Europe," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 372-383.
    51. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2011. "Intermittently renewable energy, optimal capacity mix and prices in a deregulated electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3922-3927, July.
    52. Bobinaite, Viktorija & Juozapaviciene, Aldona & Staniewski, Marcin & Szczepankowski, Piotr, 2013. "Comparative analysis of features of Polish and Lithuanian Day-ahead electricity market prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 181-196.
    53. Pape, Christian & Hagemann, Simon & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "Are fundamentals enough? Explaining price variations in the German day-ahead and intraday power market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 376-387.
    54. Tsai, Chen-Hao & Eryilmaz, Derya, 2018. "Effect of wind generation on ERCOT nodal prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 21-33.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Uz, Dilek & Sevindik, Irem, 2022. "How do variable renewable energy technologies affect firm-level day-ahead output decisions: Evidence from the Turkish wholesale electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Samuli Honkapuro & Jasmin Jaanto & Salla Annala, 2023. "A Systematic Review of European Electricity Market Design Options," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-26, April.
    3. Komorowska, Aleksandra & Kaszyński, Przemysław & Kamiński, Jacek, 2023. "Where does the capacity market money go? Lessons learned from Poland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Pedro, Andressa & Krutnik, Mikolaj & Yadack, Van Malcolm & Pereira, Lucas & Morais, Hugo, 2023. "Opportunities and challenges for small-scale flexibility in European electricity markets," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Erten, Ibrahim, 2022. "Price spikes, temporary price caps, and welfare effects of regulatory interventions on wholesale electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2020. "Variable renewable energy technologies in the Turkish electricity market: Quantile regression analysis of the merit-order effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Uz, Dilek & Sevindik, Irem, 2022. "How do variable renewable energy technologies affect firm-level day-ahead output decisions: Evidence from the Turkish wholesale electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Tselika, Kyriaki, 2022. "The impact of variable renewables on the distribution of hourly electricity prices and their variability: A panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Andersson, Jonas & Serletis, Apostolos, 2017. "Electricity prices, large-scale renewable integration, and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 550-560.
    5. Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Foster, John & Hewson, Michael, 2017. "Revitalising the wind power induced merit order effect to reduce wholesale and retail electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 224-241.
    6. Nibedita, Barsha & Irfan, Mohd, 2022. "Analyzing the asymmetric impacts of renewables on wholesale electricity price: Empirical evidence from the Indian electricity market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 538-551.
    7. Kolb, Sebastian & Dillig, Marius & Plankenbühler, Thomas & Karl, Jürgen, 2020. "The impact of renewables on electricity prices in Germany - An update for the years 2014–2018," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Goodarzi, Shadi & Perera, H. Niles & Bunn, Derek, 2019. "The impact of renewable energy forecast errors on imbalance volumes and electricity spot prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Nursimulu, Anjali, 2019. "Drivers of electricity price dynamics: Comparative analysis of spot and futures markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 76-87.
    10. De Siano, Rita & Sapio, Alessandro, 2022. "Spatial merit order effects of renewables in the Italian power exchange," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    11. Abban, Abdul Rashid & Hasan, Mohammad Z., 2021. "Solar energy penetration and volatility transmission to electricity markets—An Australian perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 434-449.
    12. Sapio, Alessandro, 2019. "Greener, more integrated, and less volatile? A quantile regression analysis of Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 452-469.
    13. Ciarreta, Aitor & Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina & Zarraga, Ainhoa, 2020. "Renewable energy regulation and structural breaks: An empirical analysis of Spanish electricity price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Maniatis, Georgios I. & Milonas, Nikolaos T., 2022. "The impact of wind and solar power generation on the level and volatility of wholesale electricity prices in Greece," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    15. Mwampashi, Muthe Mathias & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Konstandatos, Otto & Rai, Alan, 2021. "Wind generation and the dynamics of electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    16. Gianfreda, Angelica & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2020. "Comparing the forecasting performances of linear models for electricity prices with high RES penetration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 974-986.
    17. Huisman, Ronald & Stet, Cristian, 2022. "The dependence of quantile power prices on supply from renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    18. Hakan Acaroğlu & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2021. "Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    19. Macedo, Daniela Pereira & Marques, António Cardoso & Damette, Olivier, 2021. "The Merit-Order Effect on the Swedish bidding zone with the highest electricity flow in the Elspot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    20. Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da, 2019. "The “Merit-order effect” of wind and solar power: Volatility and determinants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 54-62.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:151:y:2021:i:c:s0301421520308041. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.