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UK mutual fund performance: Skill or luck?

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  • Cuthbertson, Keith
  • Nitzsche, Dirk
  • O'Sullivan, Niall
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    Abstract

    Using a comprehensive data set on (surviving and non-surviving) UK equity mutual funds, we use a cross-section bootstrap methodology to distinguish between 'skill' and 'luck' for individual funds. This methodology allows for non-normality in the idiosyncratic risk of the funds -- a major issue when considering those funds which appear to be either very good or very bad performers, since these are the funds which investors are primarily interested in identifying. Our study points to the existence of stock picking ability among a relatively small number of top performing UK equity mutual funds (i.e. performance which is not solely due to good luck). At the negative end of the performance scale, our analysis strongly rejects the hypothesis that most poor performing funds are merely unlucky. Most of these funds demonstrate 'bad skill'. Recursive estimation and Kalman 'smoothed' coefficients indicate temporal stability in the ex-post performance alpha's of winner and loser portfolios. We also find performance persistence amongst loser but not amongst winner funds.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 4 (September)
    Pages: 613-634

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:613-634

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

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    Cited by:
    1. Jezek, M., 2009. "Passive Investors, Active Traders and Strategic Delegation of Price Discovery," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0951, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Brandouy, Olivier & Briec, Walter & Kerstens, Kristiaan, 2008. "Portfolio performance gauging in discrete time using a Luenberger productivity indicator," Working Papers 2008/60, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
    3. Dariusz Filip, 2011. "Performance Persistence of Equity Funds in Hungary," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 5(1), March.
    4. Krzysztof Jackowicz & Oskar Kowalewski & Łukasz Kozłowski, 2011. "The Short and Long Term Performance Persistence in the Central European Banking Industry," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 5(4), December.
    5. Mehreen Mahmud & Nawazish Mirza, 2011. "An Evaluation of Mutual Fund Performance in an Emerging Economy: The Case of Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 301-316, September.
    6. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Alan Kirman & Matteo Marsili, 2009. "Born Under a Lucky Star?," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2009-003, Economics, Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.
    7. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2011. "Fixed-income fund performance: Role of luck and ability in tail membership," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 379-392, June.
    8. Florackis, Chris & Gregoriou, Andros & Kostakis, Alexandros, 2011. "Trading frequency and asset pricing on the London Stock Exchange: Evidence from a new price impact ratio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3335-3350.

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