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False Discoveries in UK Mutual Fund Performance

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  • Keith Cuthbertson
  • Dirk Nitzsche
  • Niall O'Sullivan

Abstract

We use a multiple hypothesis testing framework to estimate the false discovery rate (FDR) amongst UK equity mutual funds. Using all funds, we find a relatively high FDR for the best funds of 32.8% (at a 5% significance level), which implies that only around 3.7% of all funds truly outperform their benchmarks. For the worst funds the FDR is relatively small at 7.6% which results in 22% of funds which truly underperform their benchmarks. For different investment styles, this pattern of very few genuine winner funds is repeated for all companies, small companies and equity income funds. Forming portfolios of funds recursively for which the FDR is controlled at a ‘acceptable’ value, produces no performance persistence for positive alpha funds and weak evidence of persistence for negative alpha funds.

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  • Keith Cuthbertson & Dirk Nitzsche & Niall O'Sullivan, 2012. "False Discoveries in UK Mutual Fund Performance," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(3), pages 444-463, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:18:y:2012:i:3:p:444-463
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-036X.2009.00536.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mateus, Irina B. & Mateus, Cesario & Todorovic, Natasa, 2019. "Review of new trends in the literature on factor models and mutual fund performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 344-354.
    3. Kim, Sangbae & In, Francis & Ji, Philip Inyeob & Park, Raphael Jonghyeon, 2014. "False discoveries in the performance of Australian managed funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 244-256.
    4. Keith Pilbeam & Hamish Preston, 2019. "An Empirical Investigation of the Performance of Japanese Mutual Funds: Skill or Luck?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16, January.
    5. Yi, Li & He, Lei, 2016. "False discoveries in style timing of Chinese mutual funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 194-208.
    6. Mahfooz Alam & Valeed Ahmad Ansari, 2020. "Mutual fund managers’ market timing abilities: Indian evidence," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 342-354, July.
    7. Kleine, Jens & Wagner, Niklas & Weller, Tim, 2016. "Openness endangers your wealth: Noise trading and the big five," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 239-247.
    8. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk, 2013. "Performance, stock selection and market timing of the German equity mutual fund industry," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 86-101.
    9. Huang, Rong & Pilbeam, Keith & Pouliot, William, 2021. "Do actively managed US mutual funds produce positive alpha?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 472-492.
    10. Dimitrios Koutmos & Bochen Wu & Qi Zhang, 2020. "In search of winning mutual funds in the Chinese stock market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 589-616, February.
    11. Foran, Jason & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2014. "Liquidity risk and the performance of UK mutual funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 178-189.
    12. Bangassa, Kenbata & Su, Chen & Joseph, Nathan L., 2012. "Selectivity and timing performance of UK investment trusts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1149-1175.
    13. Bredin, Don & Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & Thomas, Dylan C., 2014. "Performance and performance persistence of UK closed-end equity funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 189-199.
    14. Ana C. Díaz†Mendoza & Germán López†Espinosa & Miguel A. Martínez, 2014. "The Efficiency of Performance†Based Fee Funds," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(4), pages 825-855, September.
    15. Mateus, Irina B. & Mateus, Cesario & Todorovic, Natasa, 2016. "UK equity mutual fund alphas make a comeback," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 98-110.

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