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Electricity forward curves with thin granularity: Theory and empirical evidence in the hourly EPEXspot market

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  • Caldana, Ruggero
  • Fusai, Gianluca
  • Roncoroni, Andrea

Abstract

We propose a constructive definition of electricity forward price curve with cross-sectional timescales featuring hourly frequency on. The curve is jointly consistent with both risk-neutral market information represented by baseload and peakload futures quotes, and historical market information, as mirrored by periodical patterns exhibited by the time series of day-ahead prices. From a methodological standpoint, we combine nonparametric filtering with monotone convex interpolation such that the resulting forward curve is pathwise smooth and monotonic, cross-sectionally stable, and time local. From an empirical standpoint, we exhibit these features in the context of EPEX Spot and EEX Derivative markets. We perform a backtesting analysis to assess the relative quality of our forward curve estimate compared to the benchmark market model of Benth, Koekebakker, and Ollmar (2007).

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  • Caldana, Ruggero & Fusai, Gianluca & Roncoroni, Andrea, 2017. "Electricity forward curves with thin granularity: Theory and empirical evidence in the hourly EPEXspot market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(2), pages 715-734.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:261:y:2017:i:2:p:715-734
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2017.02.016
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    Cited by:

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    3. Hinderks, W.J. & Wagner, A., 2020. "Factor models in the German electricity market: Stylized facts, seasonality, and calibration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Wieger Hinderks & Andreas Wagner & Ralf Korn, 2018. "A structural Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework for consistent intraday, spot, and futures electricity prices," Papers 1803.08831, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.
    5. Fianu, Emmanuel Senyo & Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Grossi, Luigi, 2022. "Modeling risk contagion in the Italian zonal electricity market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 656-679.
    6. Roncoroni, Andrea & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Ronn, Ehud I., 2018. "Introduction—special issue on commodity and energy markets in the Journal of Banking and Finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-4.
    7. Rüdiger Kiesel & Florentina Paraschiv & Audun Sætherø, 2019. "On the construction of hourly price forward curves for electricity prices," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 345-369, February.
    8. Wagner, Andreas & Ramentol, Enislay & Schirra, Florian & Michaeli, Hendrik, 2022. "Short- and long-term forecasting of electricity prices using embedding of calendar information in neural networks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    9. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2020. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 466-479.
    10. Rick Steinert & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Short- to Mid-term Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Using Futures," Papers 1801.10583, arXiv.org.
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