Scenario-based Supply Chain Network risk modeling
AbstractThis paper provides a risk modeling approach to facilitate the evaluation and the design of Supply Chain Networks (SCNs) operating under uncertainty. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated with two realistic case studies. Three event types are defined to describe plausible future SCN environments: random, hazardous and deeply uncertain events. A three-phase hazard modeling approach is also proposed. It involves a characterization of SCN hazards in terms of multihazards, vulnerability sources and exposure levels; the estimation of incident arrival, intensity and duration processes; and the assessment of SCN hit consequences in terms of damage and time to recovery. Based on these descriptive models, a Monte Carlo approach is then proposed to generate plausible future scenarios. The two cases studied illustrate the key aspects of the approach, and how it can be used to obtain resilient SCNs under disruptions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.
Volume (Year): 223 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor
Supply Chain Network; Uncertainty; Risk modeling; Multihazards; Scenario Planning; Supply Chain Disruptions;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Klibi, Walid & Martel, Alain & Guitouni, Adel, 2010. "The design of robust value-creating supply chain networks: A critical review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 283-293, June.
- Bilsel, R. Ufuk & Ravindran, A., 2011. "A multiobjective chance constrained programming model for supplier selection under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1284-1300, September.
- Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
- Tang, Christopher S., 2006. "Perspectives in supply chain risk management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 451-488, October.
- Kevin B. Hendricks & Vinod R. Singhal, 2005. "Association Between Supply Chain Glitches and Operating Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 695-711, May.
- Azaron, A. & Brown, K.N. & Tarim, S.A. & Modarres, M., 2008. "A multi-objective stochastic programming approach for supply chain design considering risk," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 129-138, November.
- Santoso, Tjendera & Ahmed, Shabbir & Goetschalckx, Marc & Shapiro, Alexander, 2005. "A stochastic programming approach for supply chain network design under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 96-115, November.
- Yossi Sheffi, 2005. "The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262693496, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.